In college football, you can’t hide in October. Maybe you can fake your way through September, but when the calendar flips, everyone can see you – for better or worse.
Thanks to the 12-team College Football Playoff, no one gets eliminated by Week 6, but much was revealed Saturday when four teams ranked in top 11 of the AP poll lost to unranked opponents, none more shocking than No. 1 Alabama.
The SEC had not one but two massive upsets that left just one unbeaten team in the conference with more than half the season to play.
So you lost to Vandy. Now what?
There is no history to draw on to judge how a team can lose to Vanderbilt and then bounce back to win a national championship. The Commodores had never beaten a team ranked in the AP’s top five. They were 0-60.
This is a brand new world for college football, post-Nick Saban, post-four-team Playoff. And the Crimson Tide just pulled off maybe the most improbable back-to-back results imaginable, beating Georgia and then losing to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984. Led by elusive quarterback Diego Pavia, Clark Lea’s Commodores took down the top-ranked Tide, 40-35.
Alabama’s defense has been leaking badly since it took a 28-0 lead early in the second quarter against Georgia. The Crimson Tide couldn’t get stops when it needed them, and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack will likely be the main character on “The Paul Finebaum Show” come Monday as Alabama fans lament the type of loss that had become unthinkable under Saban.
Saban’s teams went 123-4 against unranked teams. Kalen DeBoer’s Tide are now 3-1 against them.
Where does Alabama go from here? Immediately, home to play a South Carolina team that has dropped its last two SEC games, including a 27-3 loss at home to No. 12 Ole Miss on Saturday.
In Austin Mock’s model, Alabama’s chances to make the Playoff dropped from 94 percent to 80 percent. We can play the schedule game and try to project the rest of the season for the Tide, but a team that can beat Georgia and lose to Vandy — even a pretty good Vandy team — has proven that anything is possible.
GO DEEPER
Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama is mortal in a way Nick Saban’s never was
Trickle down
Most Saturdays, No. 4 Tennessee going down at Arkansas would be the headliner upset, but when Vanderbilt beats Alabama, everybody’s playing for second.
The Vols’ demise was not nearly as stunning, but make no mistake, it’s a big deal.
The conversation around Tennessee as it climbed the rankings in the first month of the season was about whether the Volunteers could be included in the elite tier of SEC national title contenders with Georgia, Alabama and Texas.
Now, that whole concept of an elite tier has been trashed.
Take early season AP rankings with many grains of salt, but just a couple of weeks ago, the SEC had six of the top seven teams in the rankings, including Mississippi and Missouri.
Among that group, only Texas hasn’t taken an L in the last two weeks.
Shake-up Saturday started with No. 9 Missouri getting exposed in a 41-10 loss at No. 25 Texas A&M. That was the only game of the day matching ranked teams.
Reminder: There are no boring college football Saturdays.
By the time Razorbacks fans stormed the field with Tennessee’s beloved “Rocky Top” ringing out in the stadium, the Aggies’ emphatic victory was an afterthought.
So much of the conversation heading into this first year of an expanded Playoff and new superconferences was about adjusting the standard of a successful season. Do we now need to be prepared for an SEC champion with two, even three regular-season losses?
The idea the SEC might gobble up at-large bids and fill half the CFP bracket now seems like folly.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: What are Alabama’s chances after Vandy upset?
The Big Ten game of the year is set
No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Oregon both took care of business this weekend to set up a monster matchup at Autzen Stadium next Saturday.
The Buckeyes’ offense needed a half to get rolling against Iowa, but once they stopped turning over the ball, Jeremiah Smith and company cruised 35-7.
It was a similar story in Eugene, Oregon, on Friday night, as Dillon Gabriel gave away a couple of first-half scoring opportunities against Michigan State, but the Ducks toyed with a shutout until the backups entered in the fourth quarter of a 31-10 victory.
Feel free to quibble with the competition, but the Buckeyes have been absolutely as advertised. The Ducks seem to have figured out their offensive line issues. If they haven’t, we’ll find out next week against Ohio State edge rusher Jack Sawyer and the Silver Bullets.
The top of the Big Ten seems to be separating itself, with Penn State looking like the other serious Playoff contender. The Nittany Lions followed a similar script to the Buckeyes and Ducks, slowly smothering UCLA 27-11. Their 83 percent chance of making the Playoff trails only Ohio State, Oregon and Texas in Mock’s model, which has Penn State as the 6-seed.
But it was a rough weekend for the next tier of teams in the Big Ten. In its first road game, No. 10 Michigan (4-2) took its second loss, with its third quarterback. Got all that? Washington (4-2) won the national championship game rematch 27-17 after two consecutive close losses, riddled with red-zone failures, against Washington State and Rutgers.
No. 11 USC (4-2) dropped to 1-2 in its new conference, taking another last-minute loss in the Midwest. This time it was Minnesota that the Trojans couldn’t hold out of the end zone on fourth down.
Then again, maybe we’re looking in the wrong place for the Big Ten’s second tier.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: What are Alabama’s chances after Vandy upset?
Emerging contenders
Another October tradition in college football is teams emerging from down or outside the rankings to become legitimate contenders. Last year, for example, Louisville did not enter the rankings until Oct. 1, and Missouri didn’t get in for good until Oct. 15.
The Cardinals ended up playing for an ACC title and finished 19th in the country. The Tigers went 11-2 and finished ranked ninth. In a 12-team playoff, both of those teams would have been in the thick of the race until championship Saturday.
So who do we need to start paying attention to?
The ACC looks ripe for a surprise team or two, even after No. 8 Miami narrowly avoided becoming the fourth top-10 team to lose to an unranked team, rallying past Cal on Saturday night in Berkeley. Pitt (5-0) is the only other unbeaten team left in the ACC after Alabama transfer quarterback Eli Holstein put up his fourth 300-yard passing game of the season at North Carolina’s expense. And how about SMU, now 5-1 and 2-0 in the league after knocking off No. 22 Louisville? The Mustangs have looked very much ready for their step up into power conference football.
Over in the Big 12, the only remaining unbeatens are No. 16 BYU — notably the only team to beat SMU — and No. 17 Iowa State. Both started the season unranked.
In the SEC, Texas A&M is now 5-1 under first-year coach Mike Elko with one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country, led by Nic Scourton.
“We are in a growth mindset,” Elko told reporters. “We are trying to grow every single day.”
Another beneficiary of the Aggies’ five-game winning streak is No. 14 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are going to need a few big wins to polish up a resume tarnished by their home loss to Northern Illinois.
Back in the Big Ten, it’s time to talk about Indiana. Not only is first-year coach Curt Cignetti’s crew 6-0, but it has won every game by at least 14 points and have scored at least 40 in each of its last five. The Hoosiers are off next week before hosting Nebraska on Oct. 19 in one of the biggest games Bloomington has ever hosted. Also notable: Indiana does not play Oregon or Penn State but has Michigan at home and an open date before going to Ohio State in November.
GO DEEPER
Is Vanderbilt over Alabama college football’s most shocking No. 1 loss? Not quite
Army-Navy squared
Army is rolling in its first season in the American Athletic Conference, joining rival Navy in a league for the first time in more than two decades.
However, the Army-Navy game is a nonconference matchup that will be played, as usual, the week after conference championship games are played and the CFP field is set.
What could go wrong?
The Black Knights and Midshipmen are a combined 10-0 overall, with Army (4-0 in conference play) holding a half-game lead for first in the AAC over Navy (3-0).
Both service academies still have to play Notre Dame. Coincidentally, both games are in the New York metropolitan area.
But if you’re wondering, the answer is yes, Army and Navy could play consecutive weekends in December — first for a conference title with potential Playoff implications and then at FedEx Field with no bearing whatsoever on the CFP.
(Photo: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
Leave a Reply