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Today, we looked at how Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix stack up against prior first-round rookies, as well as:
- Who does Ashton Jeanty remind NFL draft expert Dane Brugler of?
- The latest from the J-E-T-S
Rankings: How this year’s rookie QBs stack up
Prior to this year’s draft, we looked at the historical odds of a quarterback drafted in the top 10 being a bust. We found that since 2011, teams had just a 26 percent chance of landing a star QB via that route.
While it certainly feels premature to judge this year’s rookies after just five weeks … is it? Maybe not when it comes to Jayden Daniels, as you’ll see below.
Since 2011, 37 quarterbacks were drafted top-12. Of those, 23 played significant snaps during their first five weeks as rookies. Below, we’ll look at both their QBR per ESPN through five games and at the ends of their rookie years. For pre-2024 players, I calculated the average QBRs from individual games.
As you’ll see, the first five games are often indicative of how their rookie seasons (and in many cases, careers) would end. For example, Andrew Luck’s QBR changed just 1.3 points from after Week 5 to season’s end. Same with C.J. Stroud (1.8-point change), Trevor Lawrence (0.1), Bryce Young (1.5), etc.
Of course, that’s not true for everyone. As cases like Josh Allen (from 37.1 to 49.8) and Joe Burrow (36.1 to 48.5) illustrate, there’s still plenty of time for Caleb Williams and Bo Nix to improve, despite concerning company. See for yourself:
Early stars
| Player | By Week 5 | Rookie Year |
|---|---|---|
|
78.1 |
83.7 |
|
|
73.2 |
TBD |
|
|
65.6 |
64.3 |
|
|
63.5 |
62.6 |
|
|
60.1 |
58.3 |
For context, a QBR of 60 usually means playing at roughly a top-10 level, while 70 usually puts a QB in that season’s top five.
Yes, this is great news for Washington. As one of these five to post a QBR above 60 so early, not only is Daniels surrounded by stars (we can all agree Houston-era Watson qualified), no rookie QB of the past 14 years had a better start — other than Watson’s 2017, which would end due to injury after seven games.
And as you can see above, any first-round rookie with a 60-plus QBR after Week 5 finished near the mark. Among this group, only the injured Watson failed to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and all four became Pro Bowlers. It’s a start that foreshadows a promising career. (Just don’t compare Daniels to Lamar Jackson: “At the end of the day, I want to be known as Jayden Daniels and not the next such and such.”)
Above average
No 2024 rookies to report here, but barring injury (and excluding Mariota), these players had looked like competent starters at times. It’s also fair to say that as NFL passers, none would qualify as superstars to the same extent as tier 1, with the exception of pre-injuries Cam Newton.
And the final group:
Rocky start
Williams and Nix find themselves in a mixed bag of talent.
The good: It’s encouraging to see them above Bryce Young, Jameis Winston and Zach Wilson, whose early struggles hinted at trouble.
The bad: What’s in the water in Chicago? Williams’ QBR is below where Justin Fields was at this stage in his career. But hey, at least Williams is in between two QBs who became perennial MVP contenders.
As for Nix, he’s limited his mistakes, played a role in the Broncos’ three-game win streak and made a believer of Sean Payton, despite ranking 30th in EPA per dropback and sitting below early-stage Daniel Jones. (For more on Nix, I enjoyed Nick Kosmider’s early-season observations.)
Well, after reaching the bottom of those rankings, we could use a fresh supply of hope. Let’s look at one of next year’s draft sensations:
Prospect Watch: Ashton Jeanty, the next …
I’ve seen Heisman-contending Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, currently on pace for 2,474 regular-season rushing yards, draw comparisons to Barry Sanders, who holds the FBS single-season record (2,628). Given the disrespect runners face in today’s NFL, is Jeanty a Bijan Robinson-level prospect? Better?
💬 The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler:
“I’ll put it this way: If Jeanty were in the 2023 draft class, he would have been up there with Robinson (drafted No. 8 overall) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12). The Boise State back would have been RB1 for some teams and RB3 for others.
“Jeanty started the season as RB1 on my top-50 draft board, and he has only reinforced that through five games in 2024. He is built low to the ground and has a unique ability to force missed tackles with his combination of run balance, play strength and reactionary athleticism. And with his pass-catching ability, I can’t help but see shades of LaDainian Tomlinson, which I don’t say lightly. It also doesn’t hurt that the coaches talk about him like he has a halo under his helmet.
“Jeanty projects as a top-20 draft pick. How early? Might depend on where the Dallas Cowboys pick (half-kidding).”
We also have two quick updates from New York:
J-E-T-S Latest
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are like your local real estate agent. You didn’t ask to hear from them, but they have an update for you. Yesterday’s headlines:
1) OC Nathaniel Hackett will cede play-calling duties to Todd Downing, the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich decided on Downing in part due to the latter’s time as OC for the middling Titans offense in 2021 and 2022. In classic Jets fashion, Hackett will remain OC.
2) Haason Reddick’s agency has parted ways with him. One of the NFL’s best pass rushers continues to hold out for a $10-$15 million raise from his $14.25 million salary. The costs so far? Nearly $4.2 million in forfeited salary, over $8 million in fines and now his agent. Ouch.
As for Rodgers, he called Tuesday’s firing of coach Robert Saleh a reminder that the NFL is a “tough business,” but insisted that he did not have any say in the franchise’s decision. Unfortunately, Rodgers does have a say in their offense. Dianna has more on this change:
What Dianna’s Hearing: Jets offense might look … the same?
On the “Scoop City” podcast, I asked my co-host, Chase Daniel, what New York’s change in play-caller means for the offense. He isn’t optimistic:
“It’s not going to change at all. I went back and looked at some film (of Downing’s Titans offense), and Dianna, it looks like the Hackett offense — no motion, no shifts, no stacks and bunches.
“If you’re a static offense and you’re just sitting in a formation, it is very easy for a defense to tell what you’re doing. When you motion, and you start in different formations, and you have different personnel groupings, you make the defense sit back on their heels for just half a second and say, ‘Let me try to figure out what they’re doing.’
“So when they make this move, I’m thinking — and I don’t know the whole situation — it’s the most Jets move ever, because you’re demoting Aaron Rodgers’ guy to bring in a guy that didn’t have success. Just let Hackett continue on, in my opinion.”
Back to you, Jacob.
Week 6 Watch Guide
Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET:
- Jaguars “at” Bears in London (NFL Network)
Sunday at 1 p.m.:
- Commanders at Ravens (CBS)
- Browns at Eagles (FOX)
- Buccaneers at Saints (FOX)
- Colts at Titans (CBS)
- Texans at Patriots (CBS)
- Cardinals at Packers (FOX)
Sunday at 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET:
- Steelers at Raiders (CBS)
- Chargers at Broncos (CBS)
- Lions at Cowboys (FOX)
- Falcons at Panthers (FOX)
Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET
Need tickets? Go here. For streaming info on Fubo, click here.
Enjoy, and happy Thanksgiving to the Canucks out there!
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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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