ST. LOUIS — Though his club has celebrated just one victory in its last five games, St. Louis Blues coach Drew Bannister is fairly pleased with the first calendar month of the 2024-25 season.
The Blues began October with a record of 4-2, so with their 1-4 slide, they are 5-6 overall heading into Saturday’s rematch with Craig Berube and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
“I think if you take the games from Montreal and Ottawa out of the equation, you’re probably happy where you’re at,” Bannister said Friday. “In a small context of the games that we’ve played well, we’ve liked what we’ve done. Those two games are certainly something that we have to reflect on because we can’t have that happen to us.
“But I thought our response (in Thursday’s 2-1 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers) was real good by the whole group. But when you get into these funks, you have to keep your game near perfect to get yourself out of it.”
The Blues have been largely inconsistent, both in-game and from game to game. Some of that might have been expected with the additions of four new forwards and three new defensemen, but perhaps not to this degree.
Forward Jake Neighbours says the chemistry will come, but the bigger curiosity to him — whether they could play the style that fits the roster — is showing some good early signs.
“I feel good about this group, I honestly do,” Neighbours said. “There’s a clear understanding of what we need to do and how we need to play to have success. Although we haven’t done that consistently so far, that’s pretty clear-sighted. We’re 11 games in, we’ve got 71 to go, so there’s a lot of time to continue to build.
“But in saying that, you don’t want to fall behind. We’ve got a five-game homestand here to generate some momentum and try to win some games.”
Here’s what I’m seeing from the Blues so far through October …
Veteran forwards need to be better
In training camp, I interviewed Pavel Buchnevich about his new contract, and at one point he began talking about the upcoming season.
“We have to play better — top guys — to make the playoffs,” Buchnevich said.
That’s a common cliche in the NHL, but it’s so true. Without production from Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou up front, Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk on the back end, and Jordan Binnington in net, they’ll be hard-pressed to play in the postseason.
Through October, the Blues are not getting enough from a few of those forwards. Thomas, of course, is on the injury list, but Buchnevich has now gone eight games without a goal, Schenn nine and Kyrou 10. Meanwhile, Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad haven’t accounted for much scoring either.
The Blues are 27th in the NHL in goals per game (2.55), and the primary reason for that is they’re not getting goals from their top veterans. The bottom-six forwards have been fine for the most part; in fact, Dylan Holloway (4 goals), Mathieu Joseph (2), Radek Faksa and Alexandre Texier (1), who has missed five games, have more combined goals.
But it’s not just the veterans’ lack of offense. It’s the lack of execution, particularly the offensive- and neutral-zone turnovers that are leading to goals against. There were two massive ones early in their 8-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators.
First, Buchnevich put the puck off the skate of a Senators player, and Josh Norris put the Sens ahead 1-0.
Moments later, Saad had an opportunity to drive hard to the Blues’ net but instead fumbled the puck. Schenn struggled to offer a helping hand in the defensive zone and then couldn’t prevent the Sens’ Noah Gregor from putting them ahead 2-0.
Then in Thursday’s loss to the Flyers, Kyrou coughed up the puck in the neutral zone late in the third period, and Bobby Brink capitalized at the other end for the game-winning goal.
The margin for error is ridiculously small, and yes, the Blues desperately miss Thomas, but the veteran forwards are making that margin even smaller with those mistakes.
Buchnevich’s value not getting maximized at center
It’s a moot point because with Thomas injured, the Blues won’t move Buchnevich from the center position. They may not move him all season. But if it wasn’t already clear that the club is best served with Buchnevich on the wing, through 11 games it should be.
According to Natural Stat Trick, he is averaging a career-low 4.65 shots per 60 minutes, which is even below his previous low (5.15) as a rookie with the New York Rangers in 2016-17. That has translated to a meager 0.78 goals per 60, which is his third-lowest rate in the four seasons with the Blues.
If Buchnevich were setting up teammates from center, that would be a different story. But he has just three assists, and only one of those is a primary, five-on-five helper. His overall assists per 60 is 1.16, and his primary assists per 60 is .39, both well below what he produced as a winger with the Blues.
Furthermore, Buchnevich continues to struggle in the faceoff circle. In 2023-24, he won 37.4 percent of his draws, and while this season is incredibly young, he’s won just 34.8 percent (39 of 112).
Realistically, though, who are the Blues going to put in the middle at the moment?
After Tuesday’s loss in Ottawa, Bannister said he couldn’t stick with the “same-old” lineup, and he promoted Holloway to second-line center and moved Schenn to third-line wing. But after one game with that arrangement, Schenn was back in his old spot at Friday’s practice.
One could argue they should stick with Holloway, but that won’t make the difference between the Blues winning and losing. Likewise, there’s been a clamoring for Texier to play in the middle, but after some concerns about his compete level on Philadelphia’s first goal Thursday, he was demoted to the fourth line in Friday’s practice.
The truth is, with or without Thomas, the Blues don’t have a lot of quality options. But it would be interesting to see, when Thomas eventually returns, what the production would be if they used a combination of Thomas, Holloway, Schenn, Faksa and Sundqvist up the middle and returned Buchnevich to the wing.
The club can say that its points percentage with Buchnevich at center was .600 last season, but it’s .455 now.
#stlblues practice lineup:
Saad-Buchnevich-Neighbours
Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou
Toropchenko-Faksa-Bolduc
Texier-Sundqvist-Walker
Kapanen
*Joseph not skatingSuter-Parayko
Broberg-Faulk
Joseph-Kessel
Perunovich
*Leddy not skatingBinnington
Hofer— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) November 1, 2024
Kyrou needs to keep shooting
Kyrou is still sitting on two goals this season, both of them against the Seattle Kraken in the season opener, but he could have more.
Bannister has communicated to Kyrou that he wants him to shoot more, and in Philadephia on Thursday the winger responded by directing nine shots at the net. But in a trend that’s reminiscent of what happened to him early last season, two of those shot attempts hit the bar — on the same shift.
The game was early in the second period, and the Flyers were leading 1-0 when Kyrou hit the first bar.
Less than a minute later, Kyrou clanked the iron again.
Kyrou leads the Blues with 33 shots this season and also has the most misses (13). His career shooting percentage is 12.9 percent, but this season he’s at 6.1 percent.
But Kyrou also has three shots this season that have hit the bar, tied for the second most in the NHL.
“Eventually 1 inch one way or the other, that puck goes in the net,” Bannister said. “I think Jordan has the right mentality that shooting the puck is the way to get himself out of this.”
Can you imagine no Broberg or Holloway?
Blues general manager Doug Armstrong received a lot of credit when he pulled off the “Great Offer Sheet Heist of 2024” this summer. After witnessing the first month of the season, Armstrong should get even more.
Broberg has been the Blues’ best defenseman, tied for the team lead in points (9) and leads in plus-minus (+6). Holloway has been arguably the most dependable and versatile forward. He leads the team in goals (4), power-play goals (2) and has done so playing on the top three lines, as well as wing and center.
These are two players, who, if the Blues can re-sign them after their current two-year contracts, could be fixtures with the franchise for years to come. But the Blues would be a lot worse off this season if they weren’t in the lineup.
Honorable mention, too, for Mathieu Joseph, whose speed and tenacity have been a welcome addition. It’s no surprise that the Blues have been out of sorts the past two games when he’s been out with a lower-body injury.
Here we go again with the power play
The power play began the season with a bang in Seattle — a goal by Kyrou. But in the last 10 games, they’ve netted just three more goals on the man advantage.
Overall, the Blues rank No. 23 in the NHL, converting four of 26 opportunities (15.4 percent).
What’s demoralizing for the team is the fact that the top unit has scored just twice, and with Kyrou’s goal coming on the rush, it has just one goal (by Buchnevich) when setting up possession in the offensive zone and working the puck past the opposition’s penalty kill.
Meanwhile, the second unit has matched them with two goals, doing so with a lot more direct approach. Here’s a clip of a power-play goal by Holloway against Ottawa, the Blues’ lone goal in the game.
In Friday’s practice, Bannister changed up the units, putting Broberg on the point in the top grouping, with Buchnevich and Faulk on the flanks, Kyrou in the bumper position and Neighbours net-front. The other unit featured Parayko on the point with Holloway and Zack Bolduc on the flanks, Schenn in the bumper and Saad net-front.
Whatever the makeup, the Blues must increase their shot volume. They rank No. 30 in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick, with 39.91 shots per 60 minutes on the power play.
“The lack of success that we’ve had on the power play, we feel like we have to make a few changes,” Bannister said. “(It’s about) simplifying it and getting our guys to shoot more pucks. As a group, I think we can be more in the mindset of shooting pucks and not looking for the perfect play.”
More consistency needed from third D pair
The Blues entered the season with decent depth on defense. They’ve benefited from terrific play from 39-year-old Ryan Suter, a bounce-back year from Faulk and, again, an incredible start for Broberg.
But one area where they could use a boost is with the third defensive pairing, whether it’s P.O. Joseph, Matthew Kessel or Scott Perunovich in the lineup. They are a combined minus-9 and, at five-on-five, have been on the ice for eight goals for and 17 against. Of the last 10 even-strength goals scored against the team, at least one of those three blueliners has been on the ice for five of them.
In Thursday’s game at Philadelphia, Kessel and Perunovich were victimized on the Flyers’ first goal.
“I think all three of them have played some real good games, really strong games for us,” Bannister said. “It just comes down to consistency and grabbing that job so we don’t feel like we have to rotate those players in and out. Whether it’s Scotty, P.O. or ‘Kess,’ they’ve played very well for us at times.
“Going back to last year, ‘Kess’ played well. P.O. had a great training camp and earned ice time. Scotty (didn’t) play early in the season and then came into Toronto and had an outstanding game and earned more ice time. When they get those opportunities, they play well, and they have to make sure that they follow it up.
(Photo of Jordan Kyrou: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
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