HOUSTON — The crossroads is here, as one era of Houston Astros baseball ends while the next one evolves. Precedents held across this pivotal offseason, belying any bluster that suggested they’d shift. Short-term commitments superseded sentimentality, turning two homegrown cornerstones into opponents while thrusting a team into overhaul.
Yet until the end, Dana Brown remained bullish. He reiterated a reunion with third baseman Alex Bregman was the team’s “biggest priority,” even when nothing in the recent past suggested that route would be realistic. Bregman sought the sort of contract owner Jim Crane does not give.
Now it stands to reason he never will.
Agreeing to terms with Christian Walker on Friday afternoon all but ended whatever faint hope remained for a reunion with Bregman, a face of Houston’s golden era and a man who “made this entire organization better than where we actually were before him,” according to Jose Altuve.
Life after Bregman began on Friday. He remains a free agent, so nothing can be ruled out, but no spot for him exists on Houston’s current roster. The team is remaining mindful of its luxury tax positioning — and signing Walker leaves them about $4 million under the first threshold, according to Cot’s Contracts — so the 34-year-old first baseman is likely the team’s final significant offseason addition. As a result, Isaac Paredes will play third at a fraction of Bregman’s cost and caliber.
That the Astros even acquired Paredes at all became the first sign of Houston’s preparations for a post-Bregman world. Pursuing Nolan Arenado so aggressively across the past 10 days should’ve been the final one, but Arenado invoking his no-trade clause prompted at least some speculation that Bregman could still be in play.
Whether that is rooted in reality remains a mystery, but executing such a quick pivot to Walker suggests it isn’t. Arenado blocked the trade to Houston on Tuesday night. The Astros had turned their full attention to Walker by Thursday, according to multiple league sources.
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Such aggression has become a hallmark of Brown’s tenure. Last winter, the club announced reliever Kendall Graveman underwent season-ending shoulder surgery on Jan. 16. Three days later, closer Josh Hader agreed to the largest free-agent contract of Crane’s ownership tenure — one that must now be viewed as this franchise’s limit.
Crane has never guaranteed a free agent more money or years than the five years and $95 million he gave to Hader. He has guaranteed $100 million to three players — Altuve twice, Bregman and Yordan Alvarez — but all of those were via extensions with players still under club control.
Crane and the three general managers who’ve worked under him have shown little interest in engaging in extravagant bidding wars with other clubs within an open market.
According to both USA Today and MLB.com, Crane offered Bregman a six-year contract worth around $156 million. During the Winter Meetings, Brown said, “We pretty much set our minds on what we think the guy is worth and what we’re willing to give a guy and what it means to the organization and how that affects our payroll.”
With the Astros trading for Isaac Paredes and signing Christian Walker, the days of Alex Bregman starting at third for Houston are probably over. (Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
Whether Brown had the authority — or Crane had the appetite — to increase Houston’s offer to Bregman after its failed pursuit of Arenado is a legitimate question. During the winter meetings, Brown said, “There’s flexibility within the range,” though very little in Crane’s past suggests that is true.
Four years ago, at the outset of Carlos Correa’s free agency, Crane confirmed to a Houston television station the club offered its superstar shortstop a five-year, $160 million deal. Correa later said the club never contacted him with another offer before he eventually landed with the Minnesota Twins.
Perhaps the same process unfolded here. A similar result will follow, meaning Houston has now allowed its first overall pick in 2011 and second overall pick in 2015 to depart over dollars and years. The team already traded its fifth overall pick in 2015, Kyle Tucker, for identical reasons.
Few can argue with the franchise’s on-field results. For eight seasons, Crane has fulfilled his long-held edict that Houston’s championship window will never close during his ownership tenure.
Maintaining the promise is becoming more difficult to guarantee. Tucker and Bregman teamed to compile 8.3 wins above replacement for the 2024 Astros, according to FanGraphs. Last season, Paredes and Walker totaled 6.4 for their respective teams. Houston will be a weaker team in 2025, but one Brown still believes can capture an American League West championship.
Since 2022, only four major-league first basemen have accumulated more wins above replacement than Walker: Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson and Goldschmidt. Walker’s 120 wRC+ is at least 13 points lower than all of their marks, but his brilliant defense helps buoy the advanced metrics.
Walker still profiles as the sort of impact bat Houston hoped José Abreu could be. The Astros still owe Abreu $19.5 million not to play for them next season and $11.5 million to Sugar Land Space Cowboys reliever Rafael Montero. As Bregman searches for a deal with at least a $20 million average annual value, those numbers become more pronounced.
Walker’s offense will bolster Houston’s lineup in Bregman’s absence, but for a team that witnessed its infield defense decline during the past two seasons, getting a three-time Gold Glove winner is perhaps of greater importance. That the Astros so aggressively pursued Arenado, one of this generation’s greatest third basemen, is evidence enough of a defensive focus.
Presuming Framber Valdez remains an Astro, he will head Houston’s starting rotation alongside budding ace Hunter Brown. Both pitchers boasted a ground-ball rate higher than 50 percent last season. Deploying a competent defense behind them is mandatory — a cause Walker will only help.
According to Baseball Savant, Walker’s range and outs above average ranked in the 97th percentile last season, offering the sort of athleticism and acumen Houston needs on the right side of its infield.
Altuve is an offensive force, but ignoring his deteriorating defensive metrics at second base is becoming impossible. Altuve accumulated minus-9 outs above average last season.
The only second baseman with fewer: Jorge Polanco, in whom the Astros had interest to replace Bregman at third base. That sentence alone shows the scarcity of this winter’s infield market. Houston still managed to make a splash, even if not the one its supporters supposed.
“It’s difficult to think of what the world is like without Bregman,” Brown said last week.
Now, he and his team must live in it.
(Top photo of Christian Walker: Adam Hunger / Getty Images)
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