ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — When Bo Nix tied the Broncos record last month for touchdowns thrown by a rookie quarterback in a season, coach Sean Payton’s first reaction was to go hunting for chops to bust.
“We’re hitting these milestones and I just have to give (John) Elway a hard time,” Payton said at the time. “Like, ‘What the heck?’”
It’s fair to wonder why No. 7’s rookie marks hadn’t proven a hurdle for Nix. Elway was a first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer and two-time Super Bowl champion. He concluded a brilliant, 16-year career with back-to-back titles in 1997 and 1998, the ultimate gallop into an orange-soaked sunset. But when it came to setting a rookie standard, at least statistically, Elway didn’t give Nix much to chase this season. Elway completed only 47.5 percent of his passes in 1983 and threw seven touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his 11 appearances (10 starts). He won four regular-season games in that first year as a starter, a threshold Nix eclipsed by late October this season.
Wednesday’s #DENvsCIN injury report:
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But for all the rookie franchise records Nix has smashed during an encouraging debut season — touchdowns (22), games won (9), passing yards (3,235), completions (326), among others — he’s still chasing the rookie version of Elway in one critical way. Elway is the only first-year quarterback in franchise history to lead the Broncos to the playoffs. It’s a feat Nix will have a second chance at matching Saturday when Denver (9-5), needing one win in its final two games to reach the postseason, visits the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).
“It’s a big moment at the end of the year when you’re playing for something,” Nix said. “This is the time of year that you get ready and you want to be playing your best ball. It’s important. This time of year is the biggest. It usually all comes down to the ending, and then you move on from there. All the big games are at the end.”
Elway didn’t match Nix’s statistical profile after joining the Broncos following a post-draft trade with the Baltimore Colts. He was benched twice early in his rookie season and threw only two touchdown passes across his first eight games. But in an early demonstration of what would become a career trademark, Elway closed strong. He threw for a combined 629 yards with five touchdowns and one interception during December wins over the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Colts, the second of which clinched a playoff spot for the Broncos for the first time in four years. Elway rose to the moment in games the team had to have, developing what would become a defining trait in his career.
That brings us to the opportunity in front of Nix on Saturday. He alone can’t deliver the Broncos to their long-awaited perch in the postseason, of course. After all, he’s not the one tasked with game-planning or executing against the dynamic Bengals offensive duo of quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
“Fortunately for me, I go against the defense,” Nix said when asked about matching up with Burrow, the NFL’s leading passer.
Still, with the pressure mounting on the Broncos, it’s hard to imagine a path to the playoffs from here that doesn’t include Nix taking his game to another level. After the Broncos blew their first clinching chance with a 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16, they got no help from any other teams in the AFC wild-card race. The math is simple as far as the Broncos are concerned: They must get to 10 wins — forget whatever backdoor scenarios may exist — and they aren’t getting there without consistent play from their young quarterback.
“We have to go out there and take advantage of this opportunity that is in front of us,” wide receiver Courtland Sutton said. “We came up short with the opportunity last week, but that is on and gone. All we can control is the prep for this week and going out and putting our best foot forward to maximize this opportunity that is ahead of us. … I’m thinking about the daggum Eminem song (‘Lose Yourself”). The moment is right there. You have to take it.”
It would be foolhardy for the Broncos to enter Saturday’s game — or the finale against the Kansas City Chiefs — expecting Nix to out-duel the MVP-caliber quarterback playing for the other team. That’s not how the Broncos reached the precipice of the postseason, a place few outside the team’s headquarters expected them to be at Christmastime. They have arrived here behind a typically sound — if currently struggling — defense, a sturdy offensive line, an experienced, familiar coaching staff and a young quarterback who has largely avoided the mistakes or the prolonged struggles that can hurt a team.
It is fair to say, though, that Nix may need to factor more heavily into that equation if it’s going to be a winning one for the Broncos on Saturday. The Bengals average 28.7 points per game at home, the fifth-highest total in the league. Burrow throws for 275 yards per game in home games, the second-highest average in the league behind Detroit’s Jared Goff. And, as Payton pointed out Wednesday, the Bengals have played in games like this before, which makes them far more dangerous than their record indicates.
“We know we’re playing a good football team,” Payton said. “A team that’s been in the playoffs and kind of been where we’ve aspired to go. All the details (matter). We’re going to have to play — not a perfect game — but we’re going to have to play one of our best games. I think our players understand that.”
Bo Nix will look to get the Broncos their 10th win of the season and clinch a playoff berth against the Bengals on Saturday. (Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)
Offensively, the Broncos must show they can put together something that more closely resembles a four-quarter effort. During the same game a week ago in which the Broncos scored touchdowns on their first three possessions, they also had a stretch of five punts in six possessions, three of which came following three-and-outs. The Bengals rank 31st in third-down defense (46.4 percent), 23rd in red-zone defense (61.5 percent) and 32nd in TruMedia’s defensive success rate metric. Nix and the Broncos will have opportunities against this defense. If they want to keep pace with Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense, they can’t afford the vacillation that ultimately doomed them in Los Angeles.
“We are going to go out there and show up how we need to show up,” Sutton said. “I know this team and this locker room very well. Guys are going to show up.”
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For Nix, the details could begin with more expertly handling the adverse weather that can impact the game. He struggled in wet conditions during a Week 4 game against the New York Jets, finishing with only 60 passing yards after throwing for minus-7 on 15 (mostly short) attempts in the first half. Payton said the Broncos had the weather in New York “all of a sudden” show up after not being a part of the forecasts the team had studied leading into the game. This time is different. With an 80 percent chance of rain during Saturday’s game, the preparation has been different.
“If you’ve played football, you have to play in the rain,” Nix said. “We’re excited. I thought we ran the ball well against the Jets that day. We’re going to have to carry that over (and) have an open mindset and do whatever’s working. We’ll be able to handle the rain. We’re professionals and they have to play in it too. It’s going to be a good environment. It will be fun.”
Nix has checked so many boxes for the Broncos in his first season that have pointed toward him being the franchise’s answer at quarterback for the foreseeable future. His work ethic, poise in big moments and ability to grow from mistakes are qualities that have endeared him to teammates and coaches alike. But the question now is whether he can deliver a signature moment when the Broncos need it most, much like Elway did four decades ago.
“I think we’ve been able to do that well this year,” Nix said. “We experienced a loss last week. None of us are very excited about it so we’re excited to get back on the field. It’s kind of that competitive mindset to where you knock us down, but we immediately want to get back up and go another round. That’s what we’re looking at.”
(Top photo: G Fiume / Getty Images)
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