All eyes on Roki Sasaki now, plus the Diamondbacks get serious

The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic’s MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.

I am at least 90 percent sure that today is Thursday, which means we here at The Windup are back and ready to go for 2025. The first major storyline of the year: Where will Roki Sasaki sign? With Corbin Burnes off the market, let’s dive in and see which starting pitching options remain. I’m Levi Weaver; Ken Rosenthal is off this week. Welcome to The Windup!

Intrigue: Sasaki’s decision looms

Of the top five free agents on our top 40 Big Board this year, only one remains unsigned: 23-year-old Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki, who has begun the process of taking meetings with teams as he prepares to make a decision.

To catch you up, if you haven’t been following along: Sasaki, who is 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA and 524 strikeouts (91 walks) in 414 2/3 innings in Japan, has a somewhat unique situation. Given his age and professional experience, he is only eligible to sign an amateur free-agent contract. That means teams can only use money available in their international signing bonus pools.

By contrast, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was eligible to sign a big-league deal last year, leading to a $325 million contract with the Dodgers. The most Sasaki can receive is a signing bonus of — depending on the team — between around $5 million and $7.5 million, then a normal minor-league deal (though it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’d be in the big leagues by Opening Day).

Will Sammon was on a recent call with Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe, who laid out the factors Sasaki is considering during the meetings.

Most interestingly, Sasaki asked that no current players be included in teams’ presentations, to “preserve the integrity of the process.” Wolfe also said the pitcher is looking for a team that has a good track record of developing pitching, as he believes he still has more room for growth and improvement.

Add that to Wolfe’s comments at the Winter Meetings, which included a tendency to avoid major media markets, and you can start to make your own guesses as to the front-runners. So far, the teams that have reportedly met with Sasaki include the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Rangers, though Wolfe declined to say whether that was a full list (or if more meetings were coming).

Sasaki is eligible to sign as early as Jan. 15, and the decision-making process could extend another week or so beyond that.

Big Deals: With Burnes, D-Backs are becoming interesting

Since Monday’s edition was a recap of our most-clicked stories of 2024, we didn’t fully dive into the Corbin Burnes signing. Let’s do that briefly, while examining some of the other moves that have made for an interesting winter in Arizona.

So … the Diamondbacks?! That certainly wasn’t the predicted outcome for Burnes. Two key points:

Ultimately, his desire to pitch close to his Arizona home ended up being a factor, and he signed for six years and $210 million.
It feels like Arizona ponied up to try to quick-correct the signings of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery last offseason — neither of whom panned out quite as expected.

Montgomery could very well be traded now, leaving Arizona with a rotation of Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Rodriguez and Ryne Nelson.

The signing came not long after another big move: With first baseman Christian Walker moving on to Houston to join the Astros, the D-Backs pulled off their first trade-from-a-position-of-strength move, sending RHP Slade Cecconi to the Guardians for first baseman Josh Naylor.

Are those two moves enough to pull Arizona within striking distance of the Padres and Dodgers for an NL West crown in 2025? OK, let’s be serious. But as they proved in 2023, a wild-card position is certainly a worthwhile goal. And it’s not like they got worse after that season: Despite not making the playoffs last year, Arizona actually won five more games (89-73) in 2024 than it did in that World Series 2023 season.

The Burnes signing is a big deal, and it feels like a signal that Arizona is serious about taking another step forward. We’ll see what’s next.

More Burnes: Will Sammon asks: Can the Diamondbacks harness the pitcher’s “secret weapon”?

Market Watch: Which free-agent starters are left?

With Burnes off the board (and we’ve already talked about Sasaki), are there any big-name starters left on the free-agent market?

That depends on how you define a “big name.” Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer — each of whom is coming off a deal that paid over $43 million per season — are available. But Verlander is 41 now, and Scherzer is 40. I would expect them to sign one-year deals at drastically lower price points.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t any difference-makers available. Jack Flaherty was a major part of last year’s Dodgers championship run after the team acquired him from the Tigers mid-season. Will Sammon and Katie Woo have the latest on Flaherty here, suggesting that Baltimore — where he pitched in the second half of 2023 — might be the front-runner. Flaherty struggled with the O’s in that half-season, but arm issues may have been a contributing factor.

After him, the names drop off a bit. Nick Pivetta had a better year than his 6-12 record and 4.14 would imply — his 1.126 WHIP and 4.07 FIP suggest a touch of bad luck, and he struck out 172 against just 36 walks in 145 2/3 innings. He also has a qualifying offer attached, which would cost any team a draft pick to sign him.

Andrew Heaney’s numbers are comparable to Pivetta’s (5-14, 4.28 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 4.04 FIP, 159 strikeouts, 41 walks in 160 innings), so he’s in that tier.

After that, does anyone have interest in a veteran presence? Because it’s a list of names like Verlander, Scherzer, Lance Lynn (37 years old), Kyle Gibson (37) and Jose Quintana (36 later this month).

As a result, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more starting pitchers traded before spring training starts. As Sammon and Woo report, the “Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres” are among teams who could still be looking to upgrade their rotations.