Not all hope is lost — just most of it. Because of the New York Giants’ shootout win Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, their odds of picking first in the 2025 NFL Draft have dropped dramatically.
It’s a wild twist of fate, as just a week ago, the Giants seemed destined to pick first as the team with the worst record in the NFL. But they joined the three-win club and are tied at 3-13 with three other teams. Because of the strength of schedule tiebreaker, the odds are quite slim that the Giants will regain that top selection. According to our NFL Projection Model heading into the regular season finale week, the Giants only have a 2% chance of picking first. Our model has them most likely to pick No. 3:
Where will Giants pick in first round?
|
2025 NFL Draft pick
|
Giants’ odds
|
|---|---|
|
No. 1 |
2% |
|
No. 2 |
20.8% |
|
No. 3 |
34.1% |
|
No. 4 |
14.2% |
|
No. 5 |
1.5% |
|
No. 6 |
6.6% |
|
No. 7 |
12.5% |
|
No. 8 |
8.3% |
|
No. 9 |
<1% |
It’s worth noting that these projections are more challenging than usual, given the ramifications of so many teams planning to rest their top players in Week 18. But given the information we have at our disposal, we’re going to lay out the Giants’ draft order scenarios, starting with the No. 1 pick.
To get back up to the top, the first thing that must happen is the Giants have to lose to the Eagles this Sunday. That’s not a given since the Eagles — locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs — are “likely” going to rest their starters, coach Nick Sirianni said Wednesday. Even knowing that, however, our model only gives the Giants a 29% chance of beating the Eagles.
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But a loss is only the first step in getting back up to No. 1. The Giants also need all three teams tied with them for the worst record in the league (the Patriots, the Titans and the Browns) to win this weekend. Again, that’s because the Giants are likely to have the superior strength of schedule (.551, according to Tankathon) and would lose that tiebreaker to all three teams.
Here are the draft order scenarios tied to a Giants loss:
Giant lose +
Pick No. 1 if: The Patriots, Titans and Browns all win.
Pick No. 2 if: Two of these teams win.
Pick No. 3 if: One of these teams wins.
Pick No. 4 if: All of these teams lose.
How likely is it that the Patriots, Titans and/or Browns will win?
According to our model, the Patriots have a 45% chance of beating the Bills on Sunday. While Bills quarterback Josh Allen will start to keep his consecutive starts streak going, he won’t be on the field long, coach Sean McDermott said earlier this week. The Bills already have the AFC’s No. 2 seed clinched, so they’ll rest some their starters this weekend. Meanwhile, a Patriots loss would give the franchise its first No. 1 pick since they landed Drew Bledsoe in 1993. But the team is sticking with starting quarterback Drake Maye, last year’s No. 3 pick, as their starter for Sunday.
Heading over to Nashville, according to our model, the Titans have a 59% chance of beating the Texans. While it seems like Houston coach DeMeco Ryans plans on playing his starters, it may not be for long. The AFC South champions are locked into the No. 4 seed. Oddly, the Titans plan to play both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph at quarterback on Sunday as they evaluate the franchise’s future at the position.
Despite that, our model is projecting a Titans win, which is why it has the No. 3 pick as the Giants’ most likely outcome. The Titans are the only three-win team the model projects to win this week.
Finally, the Browns have a 12% chance of beating the Ravens on Saturday. This one is pretty simple. The Ravens will play their starters because they’re still trying to lock up the AFC North and the No. 3 seed, which they would do with a win. Meanwhile, the Browns aren’t sure who they’ll be starting at quarterback yet.
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) December 30, 2024
Giants win+
If the 3-13 Giants beat the Eagles on Sunday and get to four wins on the season, the best they can pick is No. 4. But that outcome is extremely unlikely. That’s because five teams currently have four wins — the Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears — and the Giants are likely to lose the strength of schedule tiebreaker with all but the Bears (.555), according to Tankathon (though that could still change this weekend.)
Because the Bears’ SOS is projected to be superior to the Giants, that makes knowing exactly where the Giants will fall in the draft (with a win) a little trickier. If the Bears win this weekend, that simplifies things: A Giants win paired with any of those other four teams losing drops the Giants another spot down the draft order. If the Bears lose and the Giants win, however, that’s where things get interesting. It’s not likely the Giants would lose the SOS tiebreaker with the Bears, but it is possible.
So with that, let’s take a look at how likely it is that each 4-12 team wins this weekend.
Jaguars
Jacksonville has a 23% chance of beating the 7-9 Colts, according to our model. The Colts are coming off a horrendous loss against the Giants, but the Jaguars’ chances of winning still aren’t very good. The most noteworthy news is starting Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson revealed Wednesday that he’s been dealing with a lower back issue that clouds his his status for Sunday. Veteran backup Joe Flacco would start again in his absence.
Panthers
Carolina has a 24% chance of beating the 8-8 Falcons, according to our model. The Falcons need to win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. For Atlanta to make the playoffs, it needs to win and have the Buccaneers lose to the Saints. Both games will be played Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
Jets
The Jets have a 37% chance of beating the 8-8 Dolphins, according to our model. The Dolphins need to win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Miami also needs the Broncos to lose to a Chiefs team that is resting its starters. Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed last weekend’s game and has been limited in practice this week. If he can’t go, Tyler Huntley will start. Huntley led the Dolphins to a 20-3 win last weekend over the Browns.
Raiders
Las Vegas has a 23% chance of beating the 10-6 Chargers, according to our model. The Chargers will definitely be paying attention to the Steelers game on Saturday for seeding purposes. If the Steelers lose, a Chargers’ win Sunday would push them up to the No. 5 seed and give them a wild-card matchup against the reeling Texans. If the Steelers win, however, the Chargers will be locked into the No. 6 seed before their game Sunday and will have nothing to play for. In that scenario, the Chargers may decide to rest their starters.
Bears
Finally, Chicago has a 17% chance of beating the 11-5 Packers, according to our model. The Bears are on a 10-game losing streak, while the Packers, currently the NFC’s No. 7 seed, are playing for the No. 6 seed and a “better” playoff matchup. If the Packers win and the Commanders lose to the Cowboys, then the Packers lock up the No. 6 seed and avoid seeing the Eagles in the first round. Whoever wins the No. 6 seed will end up playing either the Rams or the Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs.
(Photo: Julian Leshay Guadalupe / Imagn Images)
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