The NFL’s regular season draws to a close Sunday, and then comes what should be a hotly contested, intrigue-filled postseason.
Twelve teams (six in each conference) have punched their tickets to the playoffs. Five teams will battle for two remaining spots. Several other teams need victories to resolve seeding. The rest of the 32 squads have nothing but pride on the line.
Here are five of the leading Week 18 storylines to follow Sunday. (Find the full schedule here.)
1. Battle for NFC’s No. 1 seed
Sunday night’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and host Detroit Lions will feel like a playoff game. There’s so much riding on this game, the intensity of every other contest will pale in comparison.
Both teams are 14-2. The Vikings have won nine straight while the Lions have won two in a row and 13 of their last 14 games. Sunday’s winner will earn first place in the NFC North and the NFC as a whole. That top seed in the conference carries significant weight because it comes with home-field advantage and a first-round bye. So, the winner of this game essentially will find itself two home games away from reaching the Super Bowl.
The loser, meanwhile, will drop all the way to the fifth seed in the conference, because division winners earn the top four seeds. As a wild-card team, it would likely have to travel throughout the postseason. It’s a significantly tougher road, and that’s why this game means so much.
The last time these teams met, in Week 7 in Minnesota, Detroit won 31-29. The Lions took a 28-17 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Vikings rallied to go up 29-28 with 5:50 left when linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. returned a fumble 36 yards for a touchdown. Then Detroit answered with a Jake Bates 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds left to seal the deal. Minnesota fell to the Los Angeles Rams the following week and hasn’t lost since.
Can Sam Darnold (one touchdown, one interception last time versus Detroit) and the Vikings turn the tables this time? Or will Jared Goff (280 yards, two touchdowns) complete the sweep and carry momentum into the postseason? (Vikings at Lions, 8:20 p.m. ET.)
2. NFC South clincher
The Atlanta Falcons were in the driver’s seat in their division and could’ve locked up the crown last Sunday with a win and a Buccaneers loss. That didn’t happen after Jayden Daniels marched the Commanders 70 yards in 13 plays and completed a 2-yard touchdown strike to Zach Ertz in overtime to elevate his team over Atlanta.
That 30-24 loss and the Buccaneers’ 48-14 trouncing of Carolina led to a flip-flop in the NFC South standings. Now it’s the Buccaneers who have the opportunity to lock up the division and a playoff berth with a victory or tie. Tampa Bay hosts the New Orleans Saints, and the Bucs are heavy favorites to win. Last week, Baker Mayfield erupted for 359 yards and five touchdown passes to carry Tampa Bay to victory. Now he hopes to deliver another authoritative performance to help the Bucs win the NFC South for a fourth straight season.
The Falcons will be rooting for an upset by the Saints as they simultaneously try to defeat the Panthers. If both happen, then Atlanta wins the division and reaches the playoffs, and Tampa Bay is eliminated. If the Falcons lose or tie, the Bucs are in. (Saints at Buccaneers and Panthers at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET.)
Bo Nix and the Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s final playoff spot. (Joseph Maiorana / Imagn Images)
3. AFC’s final playoff spot
The Denver Broncos had a chance to clinch a playoff spot last week but instead suffered a painful loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Sunday, they will try once more to keep their season alive. If they beat Kansas City, which is resting a number of starters (including Patrick Mahomes), they will join the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans, Steelers and Chargers in the AFC playoff field.
The Broncos aren’t alone in their quest for the postseason, however. Cincinnati and Miami also remain in the hunt. The Bengals beat the Steelers 19-17 on Saturday night to remain in playoff contention and will spend Sunday waiting to learn their fate.
If the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Sean Payton and his players will qualify for the playoffs. But if Denver loses and the Dolphins beat the Jets, Miami will leapfrog the Broncos for the seventh and final seed. The Dolphins’ path to the postseason remains rocky, however, as they may be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (hip injury). Cincinnati needs losses by Denver and Miami to reach the playoffs. (Chiefs at Broncos and Dolphins at Jets, 4:25 p.m. ET.)
4. Aaron Rodgers’ swan song?
Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the Jets’ savior. The four-time league MVP with the Packers was supposed to carry the Jets to a long-awaited Super Bowl victory. But nothing has gone according to plan. The torn Achilles tendon spoiled plans last season, and all kinds of calamity, dysfunction and poor play from Rodgers and many of his teammates have doomed the Jets to yet another double-digit loss campaign — New York’s fifth straight and 10th in the last 13 seasons.
The 41-year-old Rodgers said this week he’s unsure if he will play in 2025. He said he already has considered that Sunday’s game against the Dolphins could represent the end of his career. However, Rodgers added that he will take some time to refresh mentally and physically before he decides whether to return for a 21st season.
Regardless of what Rodgers ultimately decides, he would like to end the season on a positive note. Last week, he threw for just 112 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 40-14 loss to Buffalo. Can he and the Jets, who have lost six of their last seven games, muster enough fire to defeat a desperate Dolphins team? Can Rodgers, who has one three-touchdown game this season and also has thrown for 300 yards just once in 2024, deliver a vintage performance, or has the magic run out? (Dolphins at Jets, 4:25 p.m. ET.)
Is Sunday the end of the line for Brian Daboll and other head coaches on the hot seat? (Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
5. Coaches on hot seat make final cases
Six head coaches face uncertain futures as the regular season draws to a close. Doug Pederson and the Jaguars were supposed to return to the playoffs after an absence last season. Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys were supposed to contend for a Super Bowl. Antonio Pierce’s Raiders were supposed to build on last season’s strong finish, when he served as interim head coach. Brian Daboll hoped to finally help Daniel Jones and the Giants live up to their potential. Shane Steichen’s Colts were supposed to threaten the Texans’ perch atop the AFC South. Jerod Mayo, in his first season since taking over for Bill Belichick, was supposed to start the rebuilding process for the Patriots.
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Instead, all of these teams have sorely underperformed. The Jaguars, Raiders and Giants all have 10 or more losses. McCarthy’s Cowboys have battled major injuries and are limping toward the finish line at 7-9. Steichen’s Colts, who got embarrassed by the Giants last week and were eliminated from playoff contention, are 7-9 as well. If Mayo and the Patriots lose Sunday, they will be 3-14 and picking No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
In some cases, owners may have already made up their minds about the future of their head coaching positions. Others may be on the fence about the directions of their franchises. Sunday gives these coaches one final chance to coax their teams toward strong performances. Otherwise, they may find themselves on the dreaded Black Monday firing list. (Commanders at Cowboys, Jaguars at Colts, Giants at Eagles, Bills at Patriots, all at 1 p.m. ET. Chargers at Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET.)
(Top photo of Justin Jefferson: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
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