What is turbulence, and how bad can a bumpy flight really be?
The answer to the latter question is, well, pretty bad, as four Alaska Airlines crew members learned the hard way over the holidays after a severe bout of rough air proved injurious and led to their hospitalization. The exact harm incurred by the crew, and one passenger who was treated at the airport but not hospitalized, is being kept under wraps by the airline to protect the privacy of those involved. The silver lining here is that they were all treated in Phoenix, the Boeing 737 Max’s intended final destination—no diversion necessary.
If you read the above account and find it mysterious and unsatisfactory, just wait until you hear the explanation for the phenomenon itself. Skybrary, an online aviation safety portal, defines severe turbulence as “large, abrupt changes in attitude and altitude with large variations in airspeed” wherein “there may be brief periods where effective control of the aircraft is impossible. Loose objects may move around the cabin and damage to aircraft structures may occur.” And if that sounds bad, wait til you hear about extreme turbulence, which “is capable of causing structural damage and resulting directly in prolonged, possibly terminal, loss of control of the aircraft.”
Pilots have a variety of tools at their disposal for predicting turbulence and minimizing its effects, according to How Stuff Works. There’s the preventative intelligence of reports from air traffic control as well as from pilots who have recently flown the same route. This pre-flight planning, plus onboard radars that enable real-time reads, allow pilots to chart their courses along the path of least turbulence. When pilots determine that turbulence is imminent, the seatbelt sign will light up—keeping your seatbelt fastened is the surest way to avoid injury via turbulence, according to the FAA.
But how and why does air turbulence occur? What are the odds that you’ll brave them on any given flight? And is turbulence occurring more frequently, or is evidence of it just easier to access than ever before?
To get to the bottom of it all, we turned to Isabel Smith of the University of Reading’s Meteorology Department, whose work involves using high-resolution climate models to predict increases in atmospheric turbulence.
This article has been updated with new information since its original publish date.
What is turbulence?
“Turbulence is the chaotic movement of air created by the shearing of winds or forced airflow up over mountains,” Smith explains. “The atmosphere is a large fluid, with waves of airflow propagating around the world. As the air becomes unstable, it breaks into fast-moving chaotic swirls. An aircraft encountering turbulence is shaken as it encounters fast-flowing, swirling airflow.”
Is turbulence safe?
Smith says, “There is the possibility of encountering severe turbulence, which can be dangerous. However, it is extremely rare, with less than 1% of the atmosphere containing severe turbulence. You are much more likely to encounter light turbulence, which will shake you around and possibly spill over a few drinks but is not dangerous.”
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