HOUSTON — The Houston Astros prefer parades to post-mortems, but here they sat on Oct. 3, dissecting their earliest end to a season in seven years. Manager Joe Espada reflected on his first season in charge, commended the resiliency of his club and claimed he is “excited” for spring training.
Who will join him in West Palm Beach next February is a far bigger question. On Thursday, general manager Dana Brown came armed with few definitive answers, but used one cliche as a crutch throughout a wide-ranging, 36-minute news conference.
“We’re not taking anything off the table in terms of what we would do, whether it’s making trades or signing a free agent,” Brown said. “We’re not taking anything off the table. The main focus will be to get back to the postseason again and go as deep as we can go and get back to the World Series.”
As Brown begins to examine everything on that table, here are the three storylines that will define the Astros’ offseason.
Will they make a serious effort to re-sign Alex Bregman?
Bregman is going to receive an offer from the Astros. It’s the bare minimum that this franchise can do for one of its cornerstones. Whether one is extended as a public relations ploy or an actual piece of good-faith negotiating is another matter.
Three years ago, Houston attempted the former in its futile attempt to retain shortstop Carlos Correa. Offering Correa a five-year, $160 million contract the entire sport knew he’d reject — and having owner Jim Crane confirm it on the record to a Houston television station — succeeded in showing the public that the Astros tried.
Repeating that routine this winter may be impossible. Jose Altuve’s adamance across the past month for the Astros to retain Bregman could force Crane to go outside his comfort zone and offer the sort of deal he’s long been averse to authorizing. Not doing so will at least prompt speculation that the face of Houston’s franchise is dissatisfied.
Altuve has thrice pleaded with “front office people, GM and ownership” to retain Bregman — an out-of-character demand from a player who rarely speaks with such candor and whose words carry more cachet than most inside the Astros’ orbit.
That Altuve and Bregman are both represented by Scott Boras can’t be overlooked, either. It stands to reason that Boras could use Altuve’s insistence as an impetus to increase Houston’s offer to Bregman.
Anything less than the six-year, $151 million contract Boras negotiated for Matt Chapman in September should be considered a non-starter. Bregman is a year younger than Chapman with better career offensive numbers and a playoff pedigree few other free agents on this market can match.
Crane has never given anything longer than a six-year contract during his ownership tenure and never guaranteed a player more than the $151 million Altuve got upon signing an extension prior to the 2018 season.
Asked on Wednesday why he’s chosen to be so adamant about re-signing Bregman, Altuve replied that “he’s our leader.
“Since the day he got here, the whole organization changed in a better direction. He made this team way better. I think there is hopefully a big chance for him to stay here and, not only that, to retire here.”
Whether Crane and his contingent of advisers listen to the face of this franchise is the biggest question. Contracts of this magnitude aren’t a general manager’s choice. It’s Crane’s call to make.
Crane attended Thursday’s news conference but left the room when the moderator mentioned there was time for only a couple more questions. Crane hasn’t spoken in a group setting since orchestrating Justin Verlander’s acquisition at last season’s trade deadline.
If the team decides to trim payroll, trading Framber Valdez could be an option. (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
Will Crane maintain a massive payroll?
The Astros have $115,433,333 committed to seven returning major-league players, according to Spotrac. Add in the $19.5 million José Abreu will receive for doing nothing along with the $11.5 million Rafael Montero will make as a Sugar Land Space Cowboy and Houston has $146,433,333 already on its 2025 payroll.
According to MLB Trade Rumors’ projections, the Astros could owe $58,225,000 to their 10 arbitration-eligible players. That number is just an estimate, but adding it to the aforementioned nine players making guaranteed money means Houston is carrying a $204,658,333 payroll before beginning its offseason shopping.
Crane carried the largest payroll in franchise history this season and exceeded the luxury tax threshold for the second time in his ownership tenure, but it will be the first time he’s paid any taxes. Houston also crossed the threshold in 2020, when the penalties were eliminated due to COVID-19.
Whether Crane wants to wade in those waters again is a mystery, one Brown may have helped to solve on Thursday.
“We’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to ‘Are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and allocate that money to use in other places?’” Brown said. “I think we’re going to have those kinds of conversations and we may have to get creative.”
The first luxury tax threshold in 2025 is $241 million, meaning Houston has around $37 million to operate with if Crane doesn’t want to cross it. None of its 10 arbitration-eligible players are obvious non-tender candidates, either, prompting wonder if Brown could pare payroll via trade.
Dangling workhorse starter Framber Valdez and his projected $17.8 million arbitration salary would seem logical if there is a directive to trim payroll. Giving away nearly 200 innings of a sub-3 ERA is dangerous, but the emergence of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco, along with the expected return of Luis Garcia, would soften the blow somewhat. Dana Brown could backfill the rotation with cheaper alternatives that the Astros’ pitching department could tweak or tap into some pitching depth at their upper minor leagues, be it with Ryan Gusto, Miguel Ullola or A.J. Blubaugh.
Setup man Ryan Pressly has a no-trade clause in his contract, but given his demotion from the closer role in favor of Josh Hader and the pitching depth Houston has accrued, it’s worth wondering if he could morph into a viable candidate to be moved. Pressly’s $14 million club option vested into a player option after his 45th appearance this season. Exploring trades with either Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick — and paving the way for top prospect Jacob Melton — could clear some space, too.
Who plays the corners?
Presuming Bregman does test free agency following the World Series, Houston will enter the winter without a third baseman or first baseman and few internal options to fill the voids. Abreu’s calamitous contract will remain on the books, too, perhaps limiting the scope of Houston’s search for help.
According to FanGraphs, the Astros extracted minus-1.4 wins above replacement from their first basemen during the regular season. Only the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds received less value from the position.
Playing backup catcher Victor Caratini at first base for two playoff games demonstrated the lack of confidence Houston has in Jon Singleton, who slashed .249/.325/.424 in 231 plate appearances after Abreu’s release. However, according to Sports Info Solutions, no qualified first baseman finished the season worth fewer defensive runs saved than Singleton.
Finding a more full-time solution must be Brown’s focus this winter. Paul Goldschmidt will be a popular name given his Houston roots, but his gradual decline must evoke some memories of Abreu. Pete Alonso will always loom as a possibility, especially if Bregman goes elsewhere and Crane wants to make a splash in response.
Christian Walker, Josh Bell and Carlos Santana are other free-agent first basemen, though prospect Zach Dezenzo could factor in if Houston wants to keep Singleton as a platoon player against right-handed pitching.
If Bregman does depart, none of the team’s internal candidates to replace him authored impressive enough seasons to merit serious consideration for the opening day roster.
Dezenzo has perhaps the most major-league-ready bat, but his defense at third base is nowhere near refined enough to play every day. Former first-round pick Brice Matthews concluded his season in Triple A, where he struck out in 19 of his 42 at-bats. He started just 21 of his 79 games at third base, too.
(Top photo of Alex Bregman: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
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