J-K election: Political leaders doubt exit polls predicting Cong-NC lead

Jammu and Kashmir exit polls

6 min read Last Updated : Oct 05 2024 | 9:48 PM IST

Political leaders and analysts expressed doubt following the release of exit polls on Saturday which saw the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance leading, with no clear majority. Some said to wait for the actual results, while NC leader Omar Abdullah outright rejected the predictions, referring to them as “time-pass”.

Exit polls released today after the final phase of voting in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections indicate a closely fought contest, with no single party or alliance likely to secure a majority. A total of 90 seats were up for grabs, with a coalition requiring 46 seats to form a government. The major players include the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), and several independent candidates.

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What did the J-K exit polls say?

Exit polls suggest the Congress-NC alliance is leading in Jammu and Kashmir, with seat projections ranging from 35 to 48 across different polls, but still short of a clear majority. The BJP is predicted to win between 20 to 32 seats, falling behind the alliance and unable to secure an outright majority. The PDP is expected to win a small share of 4 to 12 seats. Smaller parties and independents could secure six to 16 seats, potentially becoming key players in post-election alliances. No single party or alliance is projected to secure a majority, pointing to the likelihood of a hung Assembly.

“I’m ignoring all the noise”: Abdullah on exit polls

Omar Abdullah, senior NC leader and former chief minister, was quick to dismiss the significance of the exit polls, stating that only the official results from the counting on October 8 would hold weight. Sharing his views on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Abdullah remarked, “I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise… The only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass.”

The National Conference is expected to perform well, with most exit polls showing it as the single largest party, followed by the BJP.

I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp Etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass.

— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) October 5, 2024

Analysts Zafar Choudhary doubts NC govt in J-K

Speaking to PTI, political analyst Zafar Choudhary expressed doubt on Congress-NC alliance to form government in J-K. He said, “As per three exit polls, the alliance of Congress and National Conference will have an edge, but they will unlikely cross the halfway mark. It was projected that the BJP would improve its performance from 2014, but the Congress-NC alliance is predicted to have a lead.”

VIDEO | Jammu and Kashmir elections 2024: “As per three exit polls, the alliance of Congress and National Conference will have an edge, but they will unlikely cross the halfway mark. It was projected that the BJP will better its performance from 2014, but as per the exit polls… pic.twitter.com/7vJ1P32J9S

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) October 5, 2024

BJP leaders remain optimistic on J-K results

Engineer Rashid, an Awami Ittehad Party MP, also remained sceptical of the exit polls, emphasising the need to wait for the final results. He said, “Everybody is at liberty to have an exit poll. They know better what was the criteria. Let us wait for October 8, as I’ve never relied on exit polls.”

Altaf Thakur, BJP spokesperson for J-K, offered a more optimistic view for his party. “As per the exit poll predictions, the BJP’s vote percentage has increased, and it will win around 28-30 seats. However, I feel that we will win 32+ seats in Jammu region. Besides, the BJP will also open its account in the Kashmir region,” Thakur said.

Congress-NC to form strong govt in J-K: Harish Rawat

Congress leader Harish Rawat expressed optimism following the exit polls, which showed Congress-NC in the lead. “People of Jammu and Kashmir have voted for peace, security, brotherhood, development and employment. Congress and National Conference will together form a strong government there and work for peace along with the Union government,” Rawat told PTI.

VIDEO | “People of Jammu and Kashmir have voted for peace, security, brotherhood, development and employment. Congress and National Conference will together form a strong government there and work for peace along with the Union government,” says Congress leader Harish Rawat… pic.twitter.com/pO90jxCTKW

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) October 5, 2024

Possibility for hung Assembly in J-K

The potential for a hung Assembly brings uncertainty about coalition talks in the days following the election results. In 2014, a similar situation led the PDP to form government with the BJP, a coalition that eventually collapsed in 2018. With no party projected to reach the 46-seat majority mark, post-poll alliances or support from smaller parties and independents could once again be crucial in determining who governs Jammu and Kashmir.

The elections were held in three phases — on September 18, September 25, and October 1 —with voters across the region casting their ballots at 90 constituencies. The counting of votes will take place on October 8, when the final results will reveal which party or coalition will lead Jammu and Kashmir for the next term. This is crucial as the Congress-NC coalition has promised to fight for the restoration of J-K’s special status, with emphasis on bringing back Articles 370 and 35A.

About exit polls

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations, used to predict election outcomes based on their responses. Exit polls do not reflect the official or final election outcomes. The actual results may vary as votes are counted and officially declared.

First Published: Oct 05 2024 | 9:47 PM IST

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