Betting for (by) dummies: Locking in the under on Penn State-Ohio State among a series of unfun unders

With the smell of late fall and fun-size Snickers in the air, our spooky correspondents Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson share their ghastly football picks once again. Enter at your own risk.

GREENBERG (4-4 last week, 31-25 overall): Why oh why didn’t I listen to you about Bowling Green-Toledo? Of my four losses last week, that one was the most avoidable. I started with an L on the Vikings, but the Packers should’ve covered -4 at the end and the Bears were a Hail Mary from covering -2.5. But if there’s one thing I should listen to you on, it’s the Battle of I-75.

JACKSON (5-3, 29-27): This remains a hard game. It’s harder when you ignore Toledo’s recent history vs. Bowling Green and my preseason futures play on the Falcons over six wins being a lock. This is a legit good BGSU team, as the showings in College Station and Happy Valley proved.

We’re not happy until we stack some more winners, so let’s get back to work. I owe you a beer because Canton McKinley covered and I still can’t post a winning NFL week for anything. For months, the presidential candidates have worked towards next Tuesday and so have we. That’s when mid-week MACtion returns. In the meantime, help me out with some strong opinions.

GREENBERG: Sound off in the comments if you think I should drive up to Mt. Pleasant, Mich., to cover Bowling Green-Central Michigan on Election Night. MACtion = Distraction.

There are so many interesting college games this weekend, I had to stop myself from writing down potential winners.

I’ll start with America’s Team, Army giving 22.5 at home against Air Force. Last year, Army won by 20 despite being big underdogs. Army hasn’t been the favorite in this game since 2018 and no one has won by more than 21 in this game since 2009. But this isn’t a typical season for Army or Air Force. Army is legit and the Falcons lost to Navy by 27 earlier this season. I’ll take the Black Knights -22.5.

Wisconsin-Iowa screams take the under (which is how this game has finished four seasons in a row), but the Hawkeyes are a remarkable 7-1 on the total this season and even if most of those games were predicted to be in the 30s, they’ve all gone over 41. I’m going to risk it and play the streak with over 40.5, but don’t text me when it’s 7-3 in the fourth quarter.

I like Arkansas +7 at home against Ole Miss, which hasn’t covered (and lost twice outright) in three of its last four games, all in conference. Arkansas has covered nine times in their last 10 matchups with the Rebels.

I’m curious about your thoughts in these two games: I like Buffalo -1.5 at Akron and Penn State +3.5 at home against Ohio State.

JACKSON: I’ll go with a Friday night special — watch at your own risk — and take under 49.5 in South Florida/FAU. Neither offense cracks the top 100 in EPA or success rate, and in a bit of a rivalry game, I’ll bet on ugly.

Speaking of ugly, I play the under in Ohio State-Penn State every year. Last year it was my play of the month or something else I victory lapped incessantly. I’m not going to add any extra spice this year, but with Ohio State’s offensive line woes and Penn State’s recent big game history, I won’t be surprised if it’s in the 20-17 range again. I’ll take under 45.5.

Unders are no fun, so let’s shift it a little bit. Indiana still hasn’t allowed a first-quarter point all year, so how about the Hoosiers -2.5 in the first quarter again this week in East Lansing?

If you’re in a place that allows college player props, take R.J. Harvey rushing yards over for UCF-Arizona. He should go WAY over. And when Ohio State is in a big game, they throw to Emeka Egbuka.

Isn’t this all headed back to Georgia just eventually lapping the field. Should we lay the big number (-16.5) in the Cocktail Party this week?

GREENBERG: That’s probably the smart play. Florida has covered its last four and won three of those games. But Georgia has won its last three in this series by 20-plus points and that feels safe. I’m not putting it on my card though.

I’m scratching Penn State +3.5 and going with your under 45.5 for the total.

Looking at the NFL schedule, fans might want a few cocktails before watching some of these games. A lot of ugly matchups on the schedule. I feel like being underdogs on the road to the New York Jets should be bulletin board material for the injury-riddled Houston Texans. And yet, the Jets (2-6, losers of five in a row) have to win at some point, right? I’m going to stay away from that game.

No matchup looks worse on paper than the Puffer Bowl, which I’m naming after my friend and Ohio University legend Jared Puffer, who worked for the New England Patriots and now toils for the Tennessee Titans in their media relations department. I was going to roll with his Titans at home, but then I remembered the Chris Long “Lions Hangover” Rule, which advises you to bet against the team that had to play the Lions the week before. Tennessee is coming off a 52-14 loss to Dan Campbell’s leg-biters, so I’ll take New England +3.5.

Let’s roll the dice with the Commanders -4 at the Giants. The Commanders won their previous matchup in Week 2 on the foot of kicker Austin Siebert, who hit seven field goals. But Washington also ran for 215 yards. I’m betting on Jayden Daniels leading actual touchdown drives, which he couldn’t do against the Bears last week. The Giants could keep it close if Tyrone Tracy Jr. runs like he did against the Steelers on Monday Night Football (145 yards), but it’s a short week (MNF losers are 5-5 the following game, dropping four of their last five) and I think the Commanders win by a touchdown.

The disappointing Bengals’ three wins this year have come against bad teams and they’ve been 7 or 10 points. The Raiders, losers of four in a row, are coming to town. I’ll take the Bengals -7.

JACKSON: My NFL picks have been a mess. The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess. Sounds like a good marriage to me! One last shot at the Cowboys avoiding total disaster. Give me Dallas +3 at Atlanta.

I like the Vikings team total over 26.5 against the Colts on Sunday night. Kevin O’Connell is one of the league’s best play callers, and Joe Flacco on the other side will both force the Vikings to score and likely set up a short field with an interception.

Of all the bizarre stats in this NFL season, this one is at the top of the list: Philadelphia still hasn’t scored a point in the first quarter and the Eagles haven’t even had to play the Indiana Hoosiers! The Jaguars are awful, so give me first-half under 23.5 in that one.

GREENBERG: If you need me on Halloween, I’ll be dressed up as Aaron Rodgers sitting in a dark room pondering my life choices.