Takeaways from the Falcons win, a look into the Jaguars struggle and rookies, prospects

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Last night, the theme was bounce backs. Kirk Cousins threw for a career high 509 yards, Kyle Pitts had 7 catches for 88 yards, and Thursday Night Football gave us a rare, high-scoring and fun-to-watch game. We’ll start there, with no major update on Davante Adams trade buzz (listen to the latest here):

TNF Takeaways: Falcons beat Bucs in OT, 36-30

It was all smiles in Atlanta after WR KhaDarel Hodge took his final touch 45-yards for the game-winning touchdown in overtime, just minutes after the Buccaneers had a 93 percent win probability.

Hodge — on the field only because starter Drake London was injured after 12 catches for 154 yards — can’t say much about his touchdown, because he doesn’t remember it: “I blacked out. I came back to, and the next thing I know I’m on the ground,” Hodge said.

What you should remember about the game:

It was the 3-2 Falcons most important win this year, as it put them ahead by tiebreaker of the previously NFC-South leading 3-2 Buccaneers. Atlanta’s wins have all come via scores in the final minute of regulation or overtime, a trend they’ll hope ends positively against the 1-3 Panthers next Sunday.

Baker Mayfield continued to shine by finishing 19 of 24 for 180 yards and three touchdowns, but couldn’t keep up with Cousins as Todd Bowles’ defense allowed 550 yards of total offense — his worst performance since becoming head coach.

Full takeaways here. Now, to Jacksonville…

Will Trevor Lawrence cost Doug Pederson his job?

Doug Pederson’s arrival in Jacksonville appeared to mark a turning point. The Jaguars had just finished 3-14, their fourth consecutive losing season, and hope was absent. (For additional context, read The Athletic’s inside look at the failed Urban Meyer experiment).

But then Pederson — and a $300 million offseason spending spree — brought instant results; Jacksonville won a playoff game in year one and finished 9-8 in year two. Not bad, for a franchise that went without consecutive winning seasons since the first YouTube video was uploaded, in 2005.

All that progress? Quickly forgotten, for good reason: Pederson’s Jaguars are 1-10 across their last eleven games. He’s on the hot seat, as is his highly-paid quarterback, who notably missed that lone win with an injury.

The Athletic’s Mike Sando investigated whether the Jaguars overestimated Lawrence before handing him a $275 million extension. His findings bode poorly for Jacksonville:

“Through 54 starts, Sam Darnold and Lawrence had identical won-lost records (20-34), the same yards per pass attempt (6.7) and nearly the same average air yards per attempt.

“Looking at the table below, we would never conclude that one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-setting extension, while the other was an abject failure.”

Darnold and Lawrence, first 54 starts

QB	Darnold	Lawrence
W-L	20-34 (.370)	20-34 (.370)
Cmp %	60.2%	63.1%
Yds/att	6.7	6.7
TD-INT	61-53	62-40
Rating	79.2	84.6
Sack %	7.4%	5.4%
Explosive pass %	15.8%	14.0%
Rush TD	12	11
Avg air yds	8.1	8.0
Fumbles (lost)	32 (13)	35 (21)
Passes dropped (%)	63 (3.7%)	106 (5.5%)
EPA/pass play	-0.07	-0.01

And while many point to OC Press Taylor, Lawrence’s struggles are largely on him, especially after he badly missed on two long touchdown passes during the Jaguars’ recent 24-20 defeat at Houston. Pederson said afterwards: “As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street.” 👀

Their defense hasn’t been much help, either: 30th in EPA per play while allowing the third-most yards per game.

It’s a two-way street, one that could be without Pederson before long. For a detailed look into what’s gone wrong, I recommend Sando’s Extra Point column, one which often covers rookie performers such as …

Early-season rookie standouts

When we looked at the league leaders across the major statistical categories yesterday, two rookies – Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers — stood out for the early-career dominance.

But they aren’t the only members of the 2024 class impressing. The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler shared his early All-Rookie Team. Two you might’ve missed:

Saints OT Taliese Fuaga. “Fuaga was a butt-kicker as a run blocker at Oregon State, and that has continued in the NFL. In Klint Kubiak’s wide-zone scheme, Fuaga is able to generate movement down or show off his range to pick off a defender on the move. Fuaga also has yet to give up a sack.”
Rams DT Braden Fiske, who they traded a 2025 second rounder to move up for. “Through four games, the investment has paid dividends. His 13 pressures rank second among all rookies, and he registered his first sack of the season Sunday — a strip sack of Caleb Williams.”

As for next year’s class, we have an early 2025 mock below. But first a quick note from Dianna.

What Dianna’s Hearing: Which podcast host hangs on Maxx Crosby’s wall?

On the Friday episode of the “Scoop City” podcast. I revealed some of the results of The Athletic’s Player Poll with my co-host, Chase Daniel.

We were discussing the vote for “most annoying player” (Eagles DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson), and I mentioned that Maxx Crosby was among the top vote-getters — he was third — and that’s when I learned a little something about the star pass rusher’s home decor.

Chase: Did you know that I was his first sack? I did an interview with him, maybe like last year, and he has a poster of his first sack and I’m up in his living room. Swear to God.

Dianna: That is so — embarrassing.

Chase: I know. For me, not for him. It was like, Golly, I’m somebody’s trophy.

The Early 2025 Mock Draft: ‘A weird class’

As The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner explains in his 2025 Mock Draft, come April, don’t expect the typical consensus. A quick look at what might happen:

No. 1: Patriots draft Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter. A two-way player who reminds Nick of “a modern-day Charles Woodson with more offensive polish,” Hunter has the third-most receptions across college football and ranks among the nation’s top defensive backs. That’s never happened before. While a corner has never gone No. 1 — and a receiver hasn’t since 1996 — if anyone can, it’s Hunter.

No. 6: Titans add Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan. Last year, the Nico Collins-sized (6-foot-5, 212-pounds) receiver joined Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze as the only three FBS players with at least 90 catches, 1,400 receiving yards and 10 touchdown grabs.

No. 8: Raiders make Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders the first QB drafted. As Nick explains, “This is too high for a QB in this class. However, based on how willing QB-needy teams have been in recent years to reach for unfinished products, it’s certainly not a stretch to suggest a quarterback will come off the board inside the top 10 in April.”

Week 5 Watch Guide

Be ready with your fantasy football lineups early Sunday morning, as the Jets and Vikings play in London at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network.

Peter Carline wrote a great feature on the impact of London games on teams, noting that of the 72 teams to play in England, only one — the 2007 Giants — reached a Super Bowl.

Sunday at 1 p.m. ET: