Picture the Toronto Blue Jays keeping first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. long-term. Trading shortstop Bo Bichette. Signing free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman.
None of those outcomes is particularly likely. All, however, are in play, according to sources briefed on the Jays’ discussions.
The Jays are in talks with Guerrero about a long-term extension that would buy him out of his final year of arbitration and free agency. They are fielding interest in Bichette, who also is entering his walk year. And they are at least on the periphery of the Bregman sweepstakes, though other free agents, for now, appear better fits.
The perception within the industry remains that the Jays are desperate to do something big. Club president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins has just two years left. And the team is coming off a season in which it finished last in the AL East and won only 74 games.
Signing Guerrero would be a major step toward re-establishing the franchise’s credibility. But in the wake of Juan Soto’s record 15-year, $765 million free-agent contract, the price will be steep. Guerrero is projected to earn almost $30 million in his final year of arbitration and would hit the market entering his age-27 season. That’s only one year older than Soto was as a free agent.
Soto is a bigger talent than Guerrero, with a more consistent track record. But Guerrero, too, is an offensive force, leading the majors in OPS+ at 67 percent above league average in 2021 and finishing sixth at 66 percent above in 2024. In the two years in between, down years by his standards, he was 33 percent and 16 percent above.
First basemen no longer are paid the way they once were, complicating free agency for the two top players at the position in this year’s market, Pete Alonso, 30, and Christian Walker, who turns 34 on March 28. Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year, $248 million extension remains the largest contract at first (Bryce Harper signed his 13-year, $330 million free-agent deal as a right fielder). Cabrera’s deal extended from his age-33 to age-40 seasons.
Mark Shapiro (left) and Ross Atkins (right) oversee a team coming off a last-place finish in the AL East. (Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)
Guerrero will be six years younger when his next deal starts. He is a team leader, an improved defender, a player who was born in Montreal and professes to love Toronto. And the Soto contract, awarded to an outfielder who is not exactly regarded as a gifted defender, raises the bar for elite hitters. The Chicago Cubs’ newly-acquired Kyle Tucker, two years older than Guerrero and a superior all-around talent, will benefit as well. He, too, is eligible for free agency at the end of the season.
So, what might Guerrero want? A $400 million deal would be barely half of Soto’s. A deal in the $500 million to $600 million range, excessive as it might sound to the average fan, probably is more realistic. Keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market. And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt.
Bichette, who turns 27 on March 5, is another matter. He is coming off by far his worst offensive season, posting an OPS+ 29 percent below league average while missing almost three months with a right calf strain. The Jays do not appear nearly as interested in signing him as they do Guerrero. And circumstances have changed since Atkins told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi in November that his answer to trade inquiries on Bichette was “an easy no.”
Eight days ago, the Jays acquired Andrés Giménez, a Platinum Glove winner at second base, as a potential replacement for Bichette. Gimenez’s return to shortstop, his original position, seemed more likely to occur in 2026 than ‘25, Bichette’s final year of club control. But a trade of Bichette this offseason, even though the Jays would be selling low, would make sense. If the Jays lose him as a free agent and exceed the $241 million luxury-tax threshold — they are within $13 million, according to Fangraphs — all they would receive as compensation is a pick after the fourth round.
Still, the Jays do not appear to be shopping Bichette. Executives from three rival clubs, granted anonymity for their candor, said the Jays are open to moving him, but only for a high price. Good luck, with Bichette coming off his down year, under club control for only one more season and set to earn $16.5 million in 2025. He also ended the season with a broken finger that required surgery but is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.
As presently constituted, the Jays would line up with Giménez at second, Bichette at short and Ernie Clement at third. If they traded Bichette and signed Bregman, they could go with Bregman at third, Giménez at short and Clement at second. But numerous other possibilities exist. The Jays could sign free-agent right-hander Corbin Burnes and trade either Chris Bassitt or Kevin Gausman. They also could sign Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández for their outfield, one of their greatest areas of need.
Signing Guerrero should be the priority. Signing Guerrero would be a start.
For Yankees, abundant possibilities at first
The Yankees appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base than Alonso or Walker, according to sources briefed on their pursuits.
The free-agent alternatives include Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell. The Yankees also could trade for the Cleveland Guardians’ Josh Naylor ($12 million in final year of club control); Texas Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe ($10.7 million with one year of arbitration remaining); or the Tampa Bay Rays’ Yandy Díaz ($10 million with a $12 million club option for 2026).
One of the lesser free agents likely could be signed for a comparable or lower salary — and without the loss of prospects a trade would require, or the loss of two draft choices that would result from the addition of Alonso or Walker.
The Yankees sacrificed their second-round and fifth-round picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool space, for signing free-agent left-hander Max Fried. The signing of Alonso or Walker would come at the additional cost of their third-round and sixth-round selections, effectively blowing up their 2025 draft.
As pointed out by MLB Trade Rumors, the last team to sign multiple free agents who rejected qualifying offers was the 2013-14 Yankees, who added Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann.
The sheer number of first basemen available in free agency and trade clears a path for the Yankees to address the position one way or another and play Cody Bellinger in center field or left. The Yankees still would need another infielder, but if they moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second, Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu would be internal possibilities at third.
The situation remains fluid. The Yankees can also add an outfielder and play Bellinger at first, or leave the possibility open for Ben Rice to win the first-base job in spring training.
Next for the A’s: Gio
The Athletics are in agreement with free-agent third baseman Gio Urshela, pending a physical, according to sources briefed on the discussions.
Urshela, 33, was a February signing by the Detroit Tigers last offseason, and the team released him on Aug. 18. The Atlanta Braves signed him two days later, and his .711 OPS with them the rest of the way was nearly 100 points higher than it was with the Tigers.
The A’s would be Urshela’s sixth team in the past five seasons. He remains an above-average defender at third.
(Top photo of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: John Fisher / Getty Images)
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