NFL Week 17 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: George Pickens feels good

Welcome to the Week 17 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. With the extra Christmas games on Wednesday, it’ll be a slightly different schedule for the Cheat Sheet this week, so bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates Wednesday and Thursday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special cheat sheet focused on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday games later this week.

Since Jake Ciely’s player rankings aren’t published until Tuesday night, we’re starting off with a look at his weekly waiver wire column and will add in the rankings once they’re live.

The latest NFL news and headlines

Last updated: noon ET, Dec. 24

Injury news | Weather report
Featured games | Week 18 benching risks
Waiver wire

Injury news

Updated through noon ET, Dec. 24

Christmas Day

George Pickens, WR, PIT (hamstring) — Questionable
Pickens said, “I feel good,” on Monday but is questionable to play, according to ESPN’s Brooke Pryor. Calvin Austin III is the top receiver in Pittsburgh when Pickens sits. In each of the past two weeks, Austin had 65 receiving yards on five targets.

Justin Fields, QB, PIT (abdomen) — Questionable
Fields was inactive in Week 16 and remains questionable. No longer the starter, Fields’ fantasy impact is minimal, though it’s even less likely that Russell Wilson gets pulled mid-game with Fields sitting.

Nelson Agholor, WR, BAL (concussion) — Questionable
Zay Flowers, WR, BAL (shoulder) — Questionable
Neither Agholor nor Flowers participated in practice Monday, but it’s early in the week. Zay Flowers is Lamar Jackson’s top target, followed by Rashod Bateman and TE Mark Andrews. In Week 16, Flowers hit the 100-receiving-yard mark for the fifth time this season.

Tank Dell, WR, HOU (knee) — Injured reserve
Dell was placed on injured reserve after suffering a gruesome knee injury in Week 16. The Texans then signed Diontae Johnson off waivers to join a receiving corps that includes Nico Collins, Robert Woods and John Metchie III. Without Dell, Collins is primed for a high-usage, high-scoring fantasy game.

Thursday Night Football

Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (elbow) — Questionable
Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA (ankle) — Questionable
Walker did not practice Monday while Charbonnet was a limited participant. After Charbonnet excelled with Walker out due to injury, the expectation was that the two backs would share carries. But Walker had eight carries and eight receptions to Charbonnet’s single carry for negative yards and two receptions in Week 16. Walker could miss a quickly approaching Thursday night matchup, though, putting Charbonnet back in RB1 territory against an ever-worsening Bears rush defense.

Noah Fant, TE, SEA (knee) — Questionable
Fant was a limited participant in Monday’s practice. Last week, he had three receptions for 50 yards and is averaging only 6.53 PPR points per game this year.

Other notable injuries

James Conner, RB, ARI (knee) — Questionable
Trey Benson, RB, ARI (ankle) — Questionable
Conner injured his knee against Carolina in Week 16 and is questionable for Week 17. Backup Trey Benson has been on the injury report lately, but he’s an RB2 with RB1 upside if he starts. If Benson and Conner sit, Michael Carter will start and can be flexed.

Drake London, WR, ATL (hamstring) — Questionable
Head coach Raheem Morris said London could have returned against the Giants in Week 16, according to the Falcons’ official site. With rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. under center in Week 16, London was targeted eight times and caught five passes for 59 yards. Darnell Mooney saw six targets and had five receptions for 82 yards. TE Kyle Pitts had one reception for seven yards and continues to disappoint.

Josh Allen, QB, BUF (elbow) — Questionable
During a postgame interview on Sunday, Allen said his arm is fine after suffering an elbow contusion during the win against New England, according to the Bills’ official site.

Xavier Legette, WR, CAR (hip) — Questionable
Head coach Dave Canales said Legette is day-to-day but would need to make “significant” progress to suit up in Week 17, according to The Athletic’s Joe Person. Without Legette last week, Adam Thielen had five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. David Moore also caught a touchdown pass but was targeted only three times. Jalen Coker saw five targets but ended with only eight receiving yards.

David Njoku, TE, CLE (knee) — Questionable
Head coach Kevin Stefanski said Njoku would need an MRI to diagnose the severity of his knee injury, according to the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram’s Scott Petrak. The Browns were dismal with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, losing to the Cincinnati Bengals 24-6, but Njoku was the primary pass catcher with 10 targets, eight receptions and 66 yards receiving. Jerry Jeudy had only two receptions for 20 yards. Stefanski said Thompson-Robinson will start as QB as long as he’s healthy, but DTR is questionable with a calf injury, and Jameis Winston was inactive in Week 16 with a shoulder injury. Maybe Bailey Zappe will get a chance this week?

Christian Watson, WR, GB (knee) — Questionable
Watson said after Monday’s lashing of New Orleans that he would get his knee examined and is “hoping for the best,” according to The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman. On MNF, Dontayvion Wicks had a team-high seven targets but only three receptions and 13 receiving yards, though he did have a TD reception. Jayden Reed had three receptions and 76 receiving yards, while TE Tucker Kraft finished with 63 receiving yards.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, LAC (knee) — Questionable
Los Angeles opened Dobbins’ 21-day practice window, according to the Chargers’ official site. Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal and company have been largely unable to replace Dobbins’ production, and the Chargers would love to get their RB1 back. Edwards had his best game in Week 16, finishing with 20.1 PPR points, 68 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Derek Carr, QB, NO (hand) — Questionable
Carr fractured his left hand and hasn’t played since Week 14. The Saints were thumped by Green Bay on “Monday Night Football” in an embarrassing 34-0 loss. They’d love to get Carr back, but as recently as last week, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the Saints QB was a few weeks away from being cleared for contact.

Alvin Kamara, RB, NO (groin) — Questionable
The Saints couldn’t get the running game going without Kamara against Green Bay on MNF. If he can’t play again, it’s hard to trust Kendre Miller after his 1.9-yards-per-carry performance Monday.

Chris Olave, RB, NO (concussion) — Questionable
Olave’s 21-day practice window was opened, and he could return for the Saints’ matchup against the Raiders on Sunday. But even then he’s hard to trust with QB Spencer Rattler under center.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG (ankle) — Questionable
Head coach Brian Daboll said Tracy aggravated his ankle injury against the Falcons, according to the Giants’ official site. If he sits, Devin Singletary will lead the backfield. But in Week 16, neither RB was productive; Tracy had seven carries for 26 yards, while Singletary had four for 12 yards.

Drew Lock, QB, NYG (shoulder) — Questionable
Lock is undergoing an MRI on his shoulder to determine the severity of his injury, according to ESPN’s Jordan Raanan. If Lock can’t play, Tommy DeVito will likely start for the Giants in Week 17.

Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI (concussion) — Questionable
Kenny Pickett, QB, PHI (rib) — Questionable
Hurts left Week 16 with a concussion and was replaced by Kenny Pickett during the Eagles’ 3-point loss to the Commanders. Hurts is in concussion protocol, and Pickett had imaging done on his ribs. Tanner McKee is the third QB on Philly’s depth chart. If Hurts can’t play, temper expectations for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but Brown could still fare well against a Dallas defense ranked 22nd in passing yards per game allowed (223.7) and 30th in yards per play allowed (5.8).

Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF (foot/hamstring) — Questionable
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers expect Guerendo to practice Thursday, according to ESPN’s Nick Wagoner. In Guerendo’s Week 16 absence, Patrick Taylor had eight carries for 24 yards, while WR Deebo Samuel had five carries for 25 yards.

Cade Otton, TE, TB (knee) — Questionable
Otton was inactive for Week 16, and backup TE Payne Durham had five catches for 29 yards. Otton has been a great addition to Tampa Bay, but his best performance in the past six weeks came in Week 14 when he had 70 receiving yards on three catches and four targets.

Week 17 Injury Report

POS.	Team	Inj.	Status
RB	ARI	Knee	Questionable
RB	ARI	Ankle	Questionable
WR	ATL	Hamstring	Questionable
WR	BAL	Concussion	Questionable
WR	BAL	Shoulder	Questionable
QB	BUF	Elbow	Questionable
WR	CAR	Hip	Questionable
TE	CLE	Knee	Questionable
WR	GB	Knee	Questionable
WR	HOU	Knee	Injured reserve
RB	LAC	Knee	Questionable
QB	NO	Hand	Questionable
RB	NO	Groin	Questionable
WR	NO	Concussion	Questionable
RB	NYG	Ankle	Questionable
QB	NYG	Shoulder	Questionable
QB	PHI	Concussion	Questionable
QB	PHI	Rib	Questionable
WR	PIT	Hamstring	Questionable
QB	PIT	Abdomen	Questionable
RB	SF	Foot	Questionable
RB	SEA	Elbow	Questionable
RB	SEA	Ankle	Questionable
TE	SEA	Knee	Questionable
TE	TB	Knee	Questionable

Weather report

Outdoor games only

In Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather, he notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop below 35 degrees, which is illustrated in the table below.

TEMP	CMP%	PAYD/GM	ATT/TD	ATT/INT	RTG
35-	60.3	229.2	24.5	39.4	84.0
36+	63.0	239.9	22.3	42.0	89.4

TEMP	YDS/ATT	CTCH PA%	RB TGT%	WR TGT%	TE TGT%
35-	6.9	66.1%	18.8%	58.5%	20.2%
36+	7.2	68.2%	19.8%	57.4%	20.5%

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, no Wednesday or Thursday games have a high likelihood of being affected by weather:

Featured games

Game-specific previews and live updates are available on the day of the game.

Christmas Day

Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

Venue: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: Netflix

The Chiefs are close to clinching a first-round bye in the playoffs, and beating the Steelers would ensure they do. Patrick Mahomes and company, which now includes Hollywood Brown, hit the road as slight favorites. Kansas City seems to approach top form as the playoffs near, and 2024 is no different. In a 27-19 win over the Texans, Patrick Mahomes spread the ball around, hitting Xavier Worthy seven times for 65 yards, Hollywood Brown five times for 45 yards, DeAndre Hopkins four times for 37 yards and Travis Kelce five times for 30 yards. For fantasy purposes, Worthy (11 targets) and Brown (eight) were the most targeted receivers. But Brown only ran 15 routes, compared to Worthy’s and Kelce’s 37, and Hopkins’ 29. Hunt led the backfield with more rushes (11) than Pacheco (9), and Hunt’s total rush EPA of 1.34 was much better than Pacheco’s -5.93.

On the other side of the field, George Pickens hasn’t played since Week 13. Russell Wilson could use his top target as the Steelers try to clinch the division over the Baltimore Ravens, who beat Pittsburgh 34-17 in Week 16. In Pickens’ absence last week, Calvin Austin III led all receivers with 65 receiving yards on four receptions and, outside of TE Freiermuth, ran the most routes (29) along with Van Jefferson. Jaylen Warren had more carries than Najee Harris, but Harris was more productive with 4.7 yards per carry. Neither back is particularly startable in the fantasy football playoffs, but if Pickens plays, slot him in.

Read the full preview (coming Wednesday).

Baltimore Ravens (10-5) vs. Houston Texans (9-6)

Venue: NRG Stadium — Houston
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: Netflix

The Baltimore Ravens are still fighting for the AFC’s top spot when they go on the road as favorites to face the Houston Texans. After losing Tank Dell to a significant knee injury against Kansas City, the Texans signed Diontae Johnson off waivers. C.J. Stroud was visibly upset when Dell went down, and while he still has top target, Nico Collins, Johnson might be just what Stroud needs down the stretch. Despite on- and off-the-field concerns in 2024, Johnson has been an incredible route runner in previous years. Collins and TE Dalton Schultz can’t do it alone, and Joe Mixon might find it hard to run against the Ravens, one of the league’s best rush defenses. Baltimore leads the league (on a per-game basis) in rushing yards against, yards per rush allowed and opponent yards per carry after contact; the Ravens are also third in defensive rush success (EPA-based).

Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-caliber season, and if it weren’t for Josh Allen, he would likely win the award. He’s fantasy’s QB1 and leads the league in passer rating, yards per attempt and net yards. Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and TE Mark Andrews average over 10 PPR points per game, while RB Derrick Henry averages 18.79. In Week 16, Henry had 162 yards on the ground with 6.8 YPC against Pittsburgh. Flowers had 100 yards receiving (or more) for the fifth time this season, and TE Mark Andrews brought down his ninth TD of the year.

Read the full preview (coming Wednesday).

Thursday Night

Seattle Seahawks (8-7) vs. Chicago Bears (4-11)

Venue: Soldier Field — Chicago
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video

Geno Smith and the Seahawks were prey to Sam Darnold’s 2024 redemption tour in Week 16, losing to the Vikings 27-24. In the loss, Jaxon Smith-Njigba once again out-targeted (12) and outgained (95 yards receiving) DK Metcalf (seven targets, 57 yards), but both receivers finished with a touchdown. Smith-Njigba is an easy start this week against a Bears defense that gives up 225.2 passing yards per game (23rd) and ranks second to last in opponent passing yards per attempt. Despite Zach Charbonnet’s promising performances in Kenneth Walker III’s absence due to injury, Walker returned as lead back (eight carries, 31 yards; eight receptions, 28 yards), and Kenny McIntosh saw more carries than Charbonnet. But Walker injured his ankle late in the game and could miss the matchup with the Bears.

Chicago has lost its last nine games and was trolled by the Detroit Lions last week 34-17. Caleb Williams threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a 107.7 passer rating and was Chicago’s leading rusher (six carries, 34 rushing yards). D’Andre Swift rushed nine times for 20 yards — just 2.2 yards per carry. Roschon Johnson had one carry for three yards. WR Keenan Allen was the standout, finishing with 141 yards receiving and a touchdown on a team-high 13 targets. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze also finished strong with 68 and 77 receiving yards, respectively. Since Week 11 on a per-game basis, Allen has led the team in targets, targets per route run, epa per target and receiving yards.

Read the full preview (coming Thursday).

Benching risks for Week 18

Jake Ciely details a few scenarios that could lead to some teams sitting or playing regular fantasy starters less than usual the final week of the season.

Texans — Division clinched, could be locked into No. 4 seed.

Chargers and Broncos — If clinch a Wild Card spot, they can’t improve, only jockey for 6/7 spot.

Lions — Can clinch the bye if they win and Vikings lose.

Eagles — If Lions clinch, and they clinch the NFC East, they’re locked into the No. 2 spot.

Rams — Can clinch the division and be locked into the No. 3 seed if Falcons and Buccaneers lose.

Commanders — Can secure a Wild Card spot with a win, and if Eagles clinch the division, Commanders would be like the Chargers and Broncos for the 6/7 seed.

Jake Ciely’s Week 17 fantasy football waiver wire

Jake Ciely’s Week 17 waiver wire guide

Waiver wire running back ranks

Jerome Ford, CLE — The D’Onta Foreman goal-line fumble opened the door for more Ford work, and he’s in the RB2 tier for the final week.
Trey Benson and Michael Carter, ARI — If James Conner is out and Benson returns, Benson would be a Top 20 option — assuming he’s 100%. That would make Carter a flier RB3, but if Benson is out too, Carter becomes a fringe RB2 given his inconsistent career, and in the Tank Bigsby/Tyjae Spears range as a pickup.
J.K. Dobbins, LAC — Could return. If Dobbins is back, he’s a huge risk but with upside for Top 20 value. Your call if you need the desperation start.

Waiver wire wide receiver ranks

Jalen McMillan, TB — Not much more to say at this point. McMillan has gone from locked-in WR3 status with upside to potentially WR2 value against the Panthers.
Rashod Bateman, BAL — Only here if Zay Flowers is out. If Flowers plays, Bateman is down at the bottom of the list.
Hollywood Brown, KC — Boom/bust WR4, as the Chiefs don’t use wideouts more than around 60% of the dropbacks, and maybe that changes with Brown, but it’s still a tough matchup.