It’s an NFL + Netflix yuletide extravaganza this week, with a Christmas Day doubleheader featuring some of the league’s top superstars, a taped Mariah Carey performance and a Beyoncé halftime show.
The 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs aim to lock up the AFC in the opening game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company are narrow favorites on the road. Does a road game mean Taylor Swift won’t be in attendance? You can probably bet on that somewhere!
It’s a big game for the Steelers, too, whose top AFC North rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, play next. Both teams are trying to lock up the division.
And the big bets are rolling in. An eye-popping $1.45 million bet on the Chiefs moneyline (-145 at Caesars Sportsbook) made headlines Monday. Maybe someone is trying to fund some last-minute gifts?
A huge Christmas Day wager from a @CaesarsSports bettor in Vegas:
$1.45 MILLION on Kansas City Chiefs ML -145 (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
😱🎄🎅
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) December 23, 2024
For the second game of the day, Lamar Jackson and his Ravens travel to Houston to play C.J. Stroud and a bruised Texans team. The Ravens are currently 4-point road favorites.
Here’s everything you need to know about how to watch the Christmas Day games, plus odds and picks from several of The Athletic staff.
How do I watch the Christmas Day games?
Did we mention Netflix? The streaming juggernaut has made a big bet on cornering some of the massive live-sports market. The NFL is getting $150 million from Netflix for the two games.
Both Christmas Day games are available internationally on the streamer, with Chiefs vs. Steelers kicking off at 1 p.m. ET and Ravens vs. Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET with a halftime performance by Beyoncé. The game will be available in five languages: English, French, Spanish, Portuguese and German.
Most viewers will need a Netflix subscription to watch, but the day’s events will also be available on CBS affiliates in local markets (Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston) and on NFL+.
Are Netflix’s streaming problems fixed?
Streaming glitches dimmed some of the glow of Netflix’s first live sporting event: the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul spectacle in November. Brandon Riegg, Netflix’s vice president of nonfiction series and sports, says the event “stress tested” their system and that Netflix is ready to provide a seamless viewing experience for Christmas Day.
Last year, an average of 28.7 million viewers tuned in for one of the three NFL football games on Christmas Day. The Tyson-Paul bout peaked at 65 million concurrent streams.
Is Netflix going to carry more games?
Netflix is slated to get at least one Christmas Day game in 2025 and 2026. Netflix also has rights to the 2027 and 2031 FIFA Women’s World Cup and will begin its WWE partnership on Jan. 6.
Is there still “Thursday Night Football” this week?
Yes! The Prime Video “Thursday Night Football” game is at 8:15 p.m. ET this week and features the Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears.
NFL Christmas Day odds, expert picks
We have odds, previews, how to watch and expert picks for each game. But first, let’s review how our experts have done this season.
Picks leaderboard
| Rankings | Win % | Record |
|---|---|---|
|
1. Josh Kendall |
71% |
170-68-0 |
|
2. Austin Mock |
69% |
146-66-0 |
|
3. Tashan Reed |
68% |
164-76-0 |
|
4. Larry Holder |
68% |
161-77-0 |
|
5. Ben Standig |
65% |
148-78-0 |
|
6. Chad Graff |
65% |
127-69-0 |
|
7. Nick Kosmider |
62% |
138-86-0 |
|
8. Josiah Turner |
61% |
127-81-0 |
|
9. Zac Jackson |
61% |
111-72-0 |
Odds from BetMGM (U.S.) and Betfair (International) are updated live. Looking for NFL tickets? Find them here. For information on streaming, click here.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
Venue: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh
Time: 1 p.m. ET, Christmas Day
Streaming: Netflix
Looking to lock up the top seed in the AFC with a win, the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Defeating the Texans for its 11th one-possession win of the season, Kansas City keeps winning tight games. Pittsburgh faces questions about its postseason upside after a pair of decisive losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore. In a matchup of AFC playoff teams, the Chiefs are favored by a few points in the first game of the Christmas doubleheader.
Kansas City’s passing game is getting healthier and rounding into form. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception over the last five games after an uncharacteristic 11 picks through 10 starts.
The steady emergence of first-round pick Xavier Worthy (11 targets each of the last two games) and the healthy return of talented offseason acquisition Hollywood Brown gives Mahomes two more credible weapons alongside Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins. The healthy quartet helps Kansas City overcome an inconsistent backfield (27th in yards per play) that could struggle against a strong Steelers run defense (seventh in yards per play).
Winning the turnover battle is key for Pittsburgh — which leads the NFL with 31 takeaways. Ineffective at moving the ball the last three games without George Pickens, the Steelers lack offensive firepower. Without Pickens, Pittsburgh is averaging 167 passing yards per game. The running game has fallen to 31st in yards per play as opposing teams load up the box.
Facing a top-five Kansas City run defense, the Steelers could lean heavily on quarterback Russell Wilson. If Pickens (questionable) remains sidelined, Calvin Austin III is Wilson’s new main target.
If the Chiefs win and clinch the No. 1 seed, they could conceivably rest their key players for over three weeks before a potential Jan. 18 home playoff game.
—Scott Phillips
Expert picks
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (Christmas Day, Netflix)
Venue: NRG Stadium — Houston
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET, Christmas Day
Streaming: Netflix
Two future AFC playoff teams collide when the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens. With the AFC South already locked up, Houston battles for playoff seeding among a pack of teams that includes Baltimore. The Ravens are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North standings and have eyes on a division title. On the heels of a convincing win over the Steelers, the Ravens are favored by around a field goal over the Texans.
Baltimore’s top-ranked offense is a nightmare to contain. Quarterback Lamar Jackson owns the league’s highest passer rating, and lead back Derrick Henry is having one of the best seasons of his storied career. Dangerous in both the run and pass, the Ravens lead the NFL in yards per game and yards per play.
Top five in sack rate and interception rate, Houston’s elite defense poses a credible challenge for Baltimore. Opposing quarterbacks have the lowest completion percentage and passer rating when facing the Texans defense this season.
Quality wins have eluded Houston. The Texans have not beaten a potential playoff team since Week 5 against Buffalo after another close loss in Kansas City.
Middling offense is a concern for Houston’s postseason upside. The Texans now have to overcome injury to receiver Tank Dell. Quarterback C.J. Stroud still has talented receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz, but the supporting cast around them has much to prove with the postseason approaching.
Houston’s running game has been inconsistent and could struggle against Baltimore’s top-ranked run defense. Joe Mixon looked like an All-Pro amid four consecutive 100-yard games earlier this season. Only reaching the century mark twice in the last six outings, Mixon averaged 3.4 yards per carry over that span.
—Scott Phillips
Expert picks
(Photo of Travis Kelce: David Eulitt / Getty Images)
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